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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
- v+ J7 C$ ]( _2 ?: k6 L1 a余勋也不例外、
& P8 _) D/ x+ L- R+ ~其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 , ~) X: r' {6 _ L
是保经济的重要决策！
7 l! \7 G/ A/ H& ^这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
( q7 ~" N4 D7 u3 S1 z" k低点26700-32400、 2 r! n( a% C& T1 ? W9 Q( |
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 ; N! Z3 A) A& k& v: P
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
: @. y& H/ ^! Z* Z! T7 k- [大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
( W" m3 C# w/ G# T涨幅就已回撤过半！ " }. _& ^0 Y: {+ _0 z! B- l
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 9 E' o" c5 G5 E. t S" E! F) |+ m
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
4 N) x @$ p3 y6 U7 w8 H其次、 - b. j. P8 v6 _ Z% `' ?
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 K, E _+ a8 |5 N* i; H5 Q7 {
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 % |( k8 Y |0 H- t1 j: q0 T
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 . i6 r6 T; P7 e! N# w2 Z( A c
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 & O8 x7 p2 {% ?- v3 d" s
但回到币圈、 : F! z3 D/ C% Y% @# d# D% p
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 8 Q7 V- ~2 [" h% {8 H. R
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
3 D- H; R8 ]6 W+ N& y9 ^3 l2 K而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 ! e; b1 {$ l& V6 u
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 : l# h" k3 O3 {2 R' ]8 Z
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 * p/ K0 B" _/ S! e
对当前的底部、影响有限。
5 {3 @$ @$ ]- B. u9 j& q: ]* F最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 2 p0 D1 X z! {4 W9 p8 m0 L& q
所以27000、即是 4 c5 k2 _! |1 A$ W7 L% l# x, z( e! v( g
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
9 F' r8 E6 r- }: L. `$ _6 L同时还是去年放水初期低点、
* {# G/ i) P. g9 b: s) T也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
1 b2 l) v6 U% k/ q6 B7 z6 v& ^由此得出的结论是、 , C& d3 l: r4 P* n( M- }
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 $ P/ D$ {4 `) H
点位不会出现太大偏离。
% c; B4 l4 z3 Y3 [* {综合以上、
; z3 N0 ~% C4 }, ~4 n" N美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
4 J* W: q; h! a) @ ?: b1 M在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
) b/ Q4 F# @ `9 h; L那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
" r/ a/ \7 F r抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 . g7 A% E, r& N( {
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 8 t( J) K: W D* S/ l p
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 * y V! b$ _' [3 X8 E& F
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 - \1 Y" N( @! V3 Y- f. o, i
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
( Y4 N) u8 y3 e. @; a大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
+ J' C3 @0 i( m. ]. R; ^逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
) m' T, _5 G" E7 R6 u7 V" v9 l X# ]) P高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ) G* q2 F7 L( k7 b
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 5 w- I! |% r( H' a4 T
得不偿失。
1 Z3 G; v1 b8 I/ a. U% P H来源：金色财经 |
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