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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
4 a$ G$ E9 ?& L* w余勋也不例外、 0 G& l* e. l& x2 ]7 `3 D" u$ C
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
) v4 x; z1 Q9 d; b: L8 L9 o3 a# E是保经济的重要决策！ 0 x9 `# M, R: m# m z t
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
/ z! E0 I V# c$ Z低点26700-32400、 5 q G3 N( I2 [4 u
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
. N+ o- j9 y# K% i但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 % h$ Q* t7 _" H: j; G5 Q
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 ) W, s ], ~: [" g* W+ L( {! C. r
涨幅就已回撤过半！
" H+ K" c% S' M所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
* j+ B+ ?: l# r: Z不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 0 p# J0 r! f1 ~2 _
其次、
# W. ^4 \ @2 S$ S7 z缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
$ V* M, |/ h3 l, s+ }: f4 t1 A每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
1 Z# ~4 _1 {. g4 O! v: H+ {& h等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 5 y, ]' ]. v9 {5 c7 s& T# j0 c
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
. I: n+ Z M z- E) y但回到币圈、 / Q* A1 d7 j7 K. Y/ C6 A
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 5 N& g" L: S5 p! e" [- W7 _7 g
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ( |# K5 Y. ?( b9 y* j) d. S s$ _
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
: e' G) `/ _* s/ h个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
4 s8 ~2 u7 A1 c* J8 f' b' P缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
3 c0 S4 v, M9 _$ d6 L对当前的底部、影响有限。 2 Y, J. w, a. p. v; r0 c& O
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
5 u" g* j" _$ R' u- x2 v# C# g所以27000、即是 ' B+ ?$ y2 M/ Z6 I i$ l* }
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） ' ?, z0 O6 |: _+ R4 p9 _3 m1 k: ]
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 x' O( q* y: N" t$ j. d
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
6 b$ s" O, q9 R9 }$ i由此得出的结论是、 ' n- x8 i$ N+ F0 X
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
1 v' j) a; l- a& x( e点位不会出现太大偏离。
; Z- ?' c l! y. ~8 F综合以上、
5 y* S" y9 K: O" t美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ( `* \" k+ [1 ~3 H
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
* h' H! S3 f5 J$ a+ t, W那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 : O2 C% G+ a1 q6 L( Z" {
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 7 r5 z% Q" G& ^4 z
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 ]2 ^' w3 k0 e/ y$ p
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 $ U7 t4 U5 ]6 \' Q% k
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
% I( q6 U) P* ~7 t夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 4 {* x9 T! A8 }$ l9 @
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 1 o& P$ X, T, @" n8 ]" E
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
( O7 e. ?, l q+ j$ |高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ' P1 l# k( ^. r0 M7 ]
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 . G6 \5 q% k) @; k
得不偿失。
! G( e5 U% S0 M- e* b0 T' z( k) T来源：金色财经 |
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