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[lastpost] => 2657423 以太坊:200000 ETH期权到期热刺需求-价格能走多远?(转) 1718552371 老衲来了
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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报:变盘在即,缩表或推动市场走低
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市场观点4 _' b$ [) n) x- {
1、宏观流动性 + F, n4 z9 m! \: N8 b. T
货币流动性整体紧缩。本周美联储公布5月份议息会议纪要,6月及7月预计继续分别加息50基点,并开始缩表。拜登有意取消关税会降低通胀,长期有望减缓加息力度。本轮牛熊与以往最大区别是,华尔街传统资本的参与改变了crypto原有博弈格局,成为短期走势决定性因素。随着这批投机者逐渐离开,crypto走势逐渐与美股有了一定程度的不同步。 * h4 S7 I( ]# o6 ^2 L0 M, i
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2、链上指标 3 _* v# B3 }# R( v. @/ S% |+ `, \
从链上数据看,总体是大户和长线投资者买入,小户和短线投资者卖出为主。BTC在交易所的库存并没有随着震荡而减少,反而在不断的增加。这部分筹码是破坏平衡的定时炸弹,可能会随着时间而逐渐失去耐性,随时转变为抛压。
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链上活动保持冷清。链上活动和DeFi代币价格表现之间有很强的相关性,目前DeFi需求在大幅下降,尚未看到趋势的逆转。很多DeFi代币流动性枯竭,基本依靠交易所做市商维护。 4 Q; K1 B" ?* ]0 o6 \: ^: E$ {
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3、BTC长期市场指标 9 O6 K( k: W4 E* M0 J, S; ?
长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。当前指标为0.4,可见目前虽未到历史大底,但依然在低位。
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4、BTC短期市场指标 # W6 w: a/ I3 p2 Q$ T
期货资金费率:维持在0%附近,偏空。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。随着BTC价格下跌,资金费率开始向看空的方向转移,但目前力度并不算大,情绪也不算是坚定。
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期货多空比:1.4。多空比数据波动较大,参考意义有所削弱。虽然周内市场处于震荡下行的状态,但是很多散户反而觉得是反弹的机会。 5 r* w8 j( S. {
0 q; z% l! a; ~合约持仓量:合约持仓量又有了明显的增长。期权与合约市场数据显示,至少在未来3-6个月内,对进一步下行的恐惧仍然存在。 3 L* g' F: Z1 i/ G# ~8 U
) q3 b# f% }- o' c+ d) J( j5、BTC走势分析 & n# h' X. J. M3 @
本周BTC在31500-28500的区间窄幅震荡,属于大跌后的修复整理行情。交易流动性继续降低回到一个月前水平,市场所期待的大规模反弹在资金不够充足情况下,只能期待流通量更加枯竭,才有可能在已降低的存量资金下有反弹的出现。BTC长期下行趋势依然没有改变,距离熊市极限底部仍有一定空间。 7 x. g: ]7 M( A$ O) e
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6、板块涨跌幅Top 100
4 [0 w7 u/ A, A8 a! L2 D- Y本周BTC下跌5%,市场继续震荡。BTC的整体市占率提升到46%。复盘17年牛市市值前200个crypto项目,在21年牛市只有5%(例如LINK,DOGE,BNB)跑赢了BTC和ETH,大部分都下跌75%甚至更多。Crypto买新不买旧,熊市里抄底山寨币不是高胜率的投资,因为下一轮牛市总会有新的叙事主角。
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市场数据
# o( x" |1 w4 {) d3 G% {) @1 T1、公链总锁仓量情况
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本周TVL总量下跌5.08B,下跌幅度4.57%,短钱内行情端有继续下跌趋势,TVL在经历大幅下跌后也未见起色,可能会仍伴随大盘加速下跌。 3 M+ P p3 I. k
2、各公链TVL占比情况 $ |6 X y4 o+ G$ e/ l- W
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本周ETH占比从64.99%下降至63.78%,占比下降1.21%;Tron链占比异军突起,由3.96%上升至5.32%,单周占比上涨1.36%,目前已超越Avalanche排在第三位,下方已新增Tron链协议TVL数据。
8 u$ `4 G2 M+ H3 q! p6 c( B3、各链协议锁仓量情况 4 }% g4 N4 k! f1 |) Q
1)ETH锁仓量情况
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2)BSC锁仓量情况
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$ i9 O8 W, |$ [3)Tron锁仓量情况
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4)Solana锁仓量情况 4 k& ^4 w0 i% T
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5)Avalanche锁仓量情况
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" u, I6 @0 w5 w3 w9 |1 z6)Polygon锁仓量情况
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7)Fantom锁仓量情况
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% V$ I; a! ]. s' C$ ]1 Y8)本周协议情况总结 - G. P2 b0 c) S. `9 X
本周Tron生态出现爆发,其上的官方借贷协议Justlend功不可没,Jusdtlend的TVL已成为排名第三的借贷协议,锁仓金额已达30亿美元,助力Tron生态成为第三公链;其通过TRX铸造成稳定币USDD,由套利机制保证价格锚定1美元,与LUNA不同的是USDD的铸造和TRX的销毁有中心化管制,存款放和借款人与协议进行交互,赚取或支付浮动利率,当前提供USDD的APY为11.59%(由USDD和协议Token组成),借款USDD的APY为7.51%。 9 e4 L; U- P1 b/ G+ l+ Z( y9 S
4、ETH Gas fee历史情况
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当前链上转账费用约为$2.73,Uniswap交易费用约为$9.30,Opensea的交易费用约为$10.20,本周内Gas出现缓步提升,每日均值有逐渐增高之势。 + _9 R% R9 N2 |- ~
5、NFT市场数据变化 . d* A/ t7 J9 v7 _3 \. m
NFT指数市值 , e! c1 M3 y! Z- T$ q \/ E
7 j* V: v$ [" J1 t' ]NFT市场交易概览 7 x/ K# k2 h5 d5 m+ p" o
" m8 t, f6 H2 Y3 `- ?; R* E5 f1 KNFT“聪明的钱”购买排序
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本周NFT市场依旧低迷,值得关注的项目为AIMoonbirds,交易活跃且收到多笔聪明钱的购买,其中包含了一万只AI生成的猫头鹰,画质精美,且重合度极低,当前Opensea地板价0.39ETH。
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( @- C& e5 I9 O" N. V+ f f项目最新融资情况0 O1 W$ o6 F5 W9 V
p0 j8 o3 r: U2 h免责声明: Foresight Ventures所有文章均不作为投资建议。投资有风险,请评估个人风险承受能力,审慎做出投资决策。 来源:金色财经 |
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