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[打法交流]
百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略
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很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。' q# H, R; z, Y, O" B
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一般来说,$ d# _5 a# w. z4 I
9 f4 u O$ ^6 D& {; @二连赢的概率是25%
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' y% D6 f( W) @# P, t6 w: G三连赢的概率是12.5%
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# O4 W2 D: @* L ~* p四连赢的概率是6.25%6 h3 O3 M+ _" l1 Y7 h
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十连赢的概率是0.09765625%* P Y [( j+ E+ V x* O' v
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这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。
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- p. Y# d- ~5 |% b% j) v百家乐的真实概率含义是:
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2 u2 C4 e: C$ X2 B1 c假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球
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2 V% O7 M4 l* ^1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。+ G5 E- ~: o$ r1 j- r6 X! A& h2 ^8 Z
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你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。
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- |- e5 o- m1 U- d" g你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。. ?9 X( R1 u6 K2 d9 s( x
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另外一个说法是,4 D$ g# Z9 C1 |. O) h5 |
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1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。% W) M3 x* ^$ I" Z$ v- H3 Y
, b! r# b' V9 K7 ~# i, u! y8 A8 q2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。
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- J8 E3 q9 P* F" H再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。
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平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。
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$ Y {/ K" V G+ f对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。
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举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。
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5 z& l! j) M3 ^7 O2 e8 f第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化( L, y0 r N& a2 E9 ?# @
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第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。
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2 d5 x3 V! @$ ?1 x0 m }6 d) F; N( p首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。
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事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。5 [; i: x `( ]
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因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。
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