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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 : J( j, z6 N) {5 I
. y1 G& h) q# x- K" H. o: V
其实原文标题不是这样的) X% a5 a) @% {/ I# s
. q7 E# M! ^8 {$ P2 Q: W4 D6 t- ^这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
0 Q$ X3 }' ?2 E$ J- J. X& t9 X$ P! {
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...$ Q1 q* H* c: q+ R! y5 d
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。# a" J i% m. [7 ^/ o
, ?) c1 P8 Y. _0 `! @
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
& i# X5 P9 c4 W. e: i( }9 v
- ~* R; p+ A2 N2 W8 j 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
% B/ y6 a" a% u/ q. ~ ) I9 q# V/ n7 A# j
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 9 u {$ a, E. w- b4 P1 \* p
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」) \6 w. M* }! D7 @4 F Y! Y1 S" u
# h! c, |5 A5 F
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。" l+ x4 S* V* T) } V
4 c$ p: K) \% S( u1 u( r1 D
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，, X2 H6 a2 M* h: Y% ^6 T
因此铜板较容易出现正面。7 @' c) r' W4 l0 L5 G; \
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
& W# c. e# S I) m5 y因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。, |0 e8 M6 o. z3 K: H) R
心想赢定了。
% |/ u$ }8 _- O) q) Z 6 }0 M2 c; T" b3 N
没想到开始不到半刻钟，% W# r. `0 Z9 N' C
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」: P9 u$ }0 W9 f; d' f
! O8 x+ ]' r: _8 o* B( B: k赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
; K- R% }6 ^) N但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。" q, A# \1 b. C2 Y: r2 o$ @
, ?0 r) m8 q: F9 |! ?) Q6 _' ]
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
, {( [) j& {5 X* B7 b: {. L他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
9 ^9 u* }. }% c' c5 D「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
) f4 a. k' u3 \6 J7 v) p「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」4 a% \1 k# c" j) _" q
「而不是先发生在我身上。」6 g2 _& D8 A. I" x4 |# Q/ k( \* s
% q5 t' t! j( Q1 O t1 n 赌徒恍然大悟，) B+ L1 E1 a) s! N* f
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
" L- C1 F0 A1 P% @1 [" h# R竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
* s; g! j$ v+ @$ B「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」5 k. I$ k J$ |
上帝说完便不见踪影。 9 h' g4 x2 U4 F2 E
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，8 `! ?! j7 A7 K# {$ ]; N
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，# b0 J. x# N1 U& V
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
* D6 E$ N! F# \* A8 D3 F; b/ z对赌徒十分有利。
4 Q& C" M7 f1 R2 b0 `+ g5 v0 `/ m % `9 G+ k2 J+ w$ `
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
3 k& q1 q0 K1 f8 t! |; C2 Q在还没掷到1000次之前，/ ^1 ^9 {3 P* d8 o# x3 I% g9 A
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
/ P% N5 X: f, j- a. f, C2 K' Z* m- D
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。5 d( d. N$ u5 `( b4 W+ H
1 k6 Y5 a# d; [* U, ]
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。3 z) _/ z P5 M* A% c- Q
% |: E9 J( u+ O8 q1 A: \ 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，% B/ v5 ?. p8 _! H/ \
! i9 L* R k8 _! C, y7 H! s 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 8 W# L, K/ M1 z, F0 I" D; d: [
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