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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 8 F, c* n8 I; e* h+ V4 U1 D
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其实原文标题不是这样的. g% }% o2 f' Z$ M. o
5 O, ]9 V* I; @- S+ Y! z
这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
/ ~2 [' o$ f1 e" `+ h1 U' @: x. R' |0 U, J1 M
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...9 B! M2 u$ S& F( g. b
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
R0 j! B2 ]$ X
7 i3 j5 {/ @! ~9 v 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。/ d% S# ` @- k+ l
, H, W8 R2 W( x0 B* r 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
2 ~ R) I+ k" i
/ d* M/ |$ O7 E. Y8 f「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
0 R4 M; L! G0 d6 I( D* k5 n「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」9 _) b7 E% V" C" q5 I7 I
+ @- v5 G& t* [# h
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。/ j7 F0 ]* Y: O+ M7 k
* i1 x8 ~ t, H1 }接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
9 p$ D8 N$ q4 Z因此铜板较容易出现正面。
# B& @7 r) B" K长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 : |6 A( \ f* B; M
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。) S; }. {4 `* @1 g
心想赢定了。
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& A7 ]6 O) q* w6 z0 i没想到开始不到半刻钟，
/ M, J6 \ n# r; @赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」# b' g5 H/ P T+ M$ h
* t# o. X$ O1 i2 G' K1 R! e+ I赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
* E$ Z5 I' m3 h$ }( |但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
O3 Y6 t) x0 O/ d6 i- O6 i
% G% ~, Q% D/ e- q7 |赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
, O+ \4 \; f$ ^他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
0 ]" f$ R$ U4 r( W8 ^ p6 {
上帝回答道：
2 m& }5 d) C$ \& w$ q9 f「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」. [3 o Y# n' ~, n9 d. g3 U
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」2 S, d4 c \- G. k
「而不是先发生在我身上。」$ u4 l% K" A9 w& B
' H7 m9 N: \& I8 w 赌徒恍然大悟，
& g* I! H5 j' O4 ]6 J) }9 q原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
- |! {7 f+ L9 @竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
/ R/ c3 U( a6 }「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」7 g2 @4 a; A" H4 W+ q
上帝说完便不见踪影。 ' D6 W1 [: [) H0 s6 E
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
4 G- C* Q" ^: ?* @/ n1 @! j3 @若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，& z o6 j2 S% H1 l1 y
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
r5 {! b% o: D# _对赌徒十分有利。
$ O6 d) F8 u7 P. O" e+ s. F* I- w
, W' o7 f- a5 @/ X2 E5 r但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
1 `- @4 Z8 r2 w4 |+ N& b在还没掷到1000次之前，
3 H+ e/ G7 m1 n' R3 [仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。! a( M0 e% R3 x$ {1 ]: a$ t
; F; L7 u, u1 H. X& k 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
6 L) _6 ]7 t" g- z3 D* E! M5 _, D. d% G3 t
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。/ g" z0 U2 `3 z- |$ r8 f+ v- D
' \5 b- `* k0 k8 L5 C: _6 x 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
2 K3 X1 z4 P* P9 D# C0 ?1 \/ J5 d% V' O" m w
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 4 F0 t8 W5 U" X# r3 c
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