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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
3 M7 _0 D% ~1 d$ |3 |
( X1 k6 c: j6 F2 w其实原文标题不是这样的
( V2 R" _# B6 |; d+ `! g5 ?( A; U' N+ I6 r4 K' O) m9 e+ V' }
这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
9 \, G+ T ?' u6 n; a# v! r# y: J! [( S3 W
7 `3 M! R$ Q1 b" h9 z
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...7 L8 E) D% N* _# w: t9 ^
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。/ j% I/ U4 v( l& K! p0 X
' d I$ b' }) n7 j$ L) | 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
) Y+ o1 l1 |; E J! r1 J7 {# D3 G$ d' y. i; O6 j3 y
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」! {# g) m$ c# F) k# `
2 q; a; c# I( C; W7 z0 ~「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
: O/ ~0 f1 h' x$ V「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
. `2 O1 c$ @+ @) C
- A# x+ T! i$ W 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。" C. |2 @. ~' e7 T: X
6 ^) s& c. r7 i0 y3 ^$ h# |$ q6 S' S接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
, M, q! b: [2 G3 F+ X& w( T- ]因此铜板较容易出现正面。
% {# G$ Q! J, J" e9 s) B长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
. p. ]% f/ J! D7 C% d3 h( F- S因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
: S, |2 u. V( L: E; \% _2 R# L% }心想赢定了。
6 `) t5 w0 W; k: |- V0 } . i# z! T" ?8 C8 ^
没想到开始不到半刻钟，
. ~- i& s& r- {4 x- X M赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
, J6 d, I7 D, p' |! c! u, z5 ~
4 y: n& X/ m! m7 h4 k赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，6 I& p3 R9 e/ X' I
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
# _* P6 T3 w3 d1 S) j ; `( ?+ d: s7 ?$ ?3 N' K' I1 P
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?2 j) C! r$ _* \0 @& L
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 # P' }7 }6 D; ?2 U
上帝回答道：, y% d4 X% ~6 ]6 e& Z/ t. i" x
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
' n, W" X$ w; {4 R5 Z「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
: m5 R5 H$ N, |7 Z+ n( |「而不是先发生在我身上。」
9 N4 c8 u& `% P% v
5 t- h/ m3 ~' l) j 赌徒恍然大悟，
$ \% h8 f; E M j7 H9 G: L" @ e; h原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
6 ?- Z. B5 H; H9 b竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
6 S; |! o3 w. D- h( ?; {- }「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
( g9 f' D1 ~, @/ r" [9 A上帝说完便不见踪影。
. b" M- G7 f6 Y c( E I" _8 D4 W, _
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
* q2 U6 J. M6 f# p6 U* U若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
8 M4 X+ f4 | k- N# F# S! l$ @1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
_0 l2 }& M; w对赌徒十分有利。
! D% z7 w8 ?9 R: t/ b1 S% N' N
6 x4 w3 \5 {3 C7 U但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，9 Q- {" X4 @& Y/ E. C" E6 ?/ b
在还没掷到1000次之前，
6 S' X" s3 a |仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
e0 r$ N8 X6 i$ Q6 H- e9 c! Q! I& u9 q% `5 o+ P& Z
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
! N) s# r/ m, G: h( f& S+ i
" b. O) C+ c/ v" `% B 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。 Z3 [2 Q# d& i, k1 q L
+ E; h9 l% Z: o5 C5 `
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
& E& U7 c6 O# w: Y. `% ?* K) r$ ^4 u$ A1 x4 b/ ?7 Q
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 9 o3 ~4 o$ _% O$ _
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