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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑- b. I B' C- y9 ~
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% [' B3 U; G9 X/ K I8 y凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k: C8 f9 m8 }( k, F7 E1 a
) D* _* H; w+ z2 B# Q
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
0 N7 E7 |% v1 @# `( v" V3 `1 }什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
- A4 O0 T z# \3 B% d5 Q: K) y6 u: k, C7 i( r
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
( N4 q$ P8 @5 L& S9 c/ b既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 8 R. w) S6 [% [8 g( i
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s- o7 W: ]; ~1 G9 n( d
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `3 m, \# \3 e6 [5 Z4 R; v
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
/ i ?" u+ ~8 V(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
" u9 k5 V, [3 c. r: A( I0 F/ K
) w7 T7 o+ V# n2 t% ^' y(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 + b8 f0 M& j: y D' W! y8 o
- [7 n3 Y( ]" z" H- W(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t$ U0 E7 m! `& ?# z" p
5 _. J' g: M- K+ A
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 ( B3 k9 z) ^4 ?0 V, a
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
% z4 Y" l5 {7 I' a- Y# k6 J1 v我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
; n( b7 `# l2 q' `7 F4 P5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c2 K/ g( ?- u$ X$ \' }
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 ( K& S9 r; S+ W/ W/ b
/ S/ ?1 }4 z7 ~" LS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
C- R: O7 }, ~3 |. |8 q3 L- ]- ?+ M% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
) a8 j/ `+ o7 U7 i9 ZS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 7 K. m v0 k- m/ H+ K
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j2 M7 m6 N) H# M6 _" B
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
7 V( a- N* E' Z! c# `" b P8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v0 v4 D0 ?- G/ E' e
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 + g* Z6 F/ w! ~7 o- B; \ b6 E8 n/ t' s
( G" v3 {, _2 D# U% K% X
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l+ r' r4 M1 p& N" ]( c
& U! d) K$ `( @
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q' H* S B9 L; d
\5 q0 z7 D3 e" f
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 4 O- _3 }2 F" y3 \2 d
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
+ h1 U! q/ o7 L) o# sS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
7 x0 W( O1 \. h H) {( D) |
% D: e7 \& h7 Q2 f( y0 i" A7 s类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j* b7 [- u" U; V0 \8 S0 n) \
& ?- g/ r; [3 J2 A3 J
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
9 E1 s' X7 T' r1 v3 y
* A. ]3 d* Q, k3 I5 s9 ~6 AS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s5 ?: E- |& N! ^$ _7 g+ Y
; m' V% T, u, P% O/ y( i( r3 ~0 [0 {3 u* Q2 j( L
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 % C% |4 C) `+ c% |# G& \
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a/ ?9 d. p' Q$ ^! w: q' t- O
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
/ r) b9 E2 ~7 j8 {8 o# V R: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~* S7 J; I7 _& J( ?- d) W! R
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o# C3 q* j" M: n; `1 n) C
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \/ C, d) P4 }) P9 k- N3 Y0 z
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
4 ^$ Q/ Z7 g/ s6 H M) q( ], k9 L T& t A! f, u# G' p# x
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
) C! t) ~/ z0 g" U: Z, t* x
( m1 }1 G8 T% n! `F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
3 I1 M2 f' d7 K# }# E2 O8 q/ I, V2 g# I8 M
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?: C: c, s1 r: }# h2 v
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {) B' t0 H2 z; T/ D) q
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M9 u' P+ Q' L1 R/ T; o0 H+ [
+ D$ n) P# X# M
- k7 ?4 h3 L; C% b9 tG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
- M, L& o* t7 D; Z# q! |3 T2 [/ D" X9 R1 O) P- n' A
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]: ^$ m0 k+ ?4 @9 l+ M
8 Z# h# U5 [7 ~% u
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \: s# N' v# z, s- Z6 P1 Z
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
4 Y: _( E2 i5 Y7 L w" [通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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