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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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0 p# ~6 {/ ^ O5 v/ O西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率2 ]# d) b$ F \3 N5 a! }+ h3 y
5 G$ x" ~' w8 H以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得: R3 j: m! B6 q7 F* o% m9 D
" ]% h4 {" ^1 ]# E% k, H% z. R" ?皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
5 ~) v6 C( n, R$ ~
; [. W- @/ ?) p) n$ ^8 I7 L很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)0 r" w) `% k; o+ O5 |6 |4 Q# F
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: o( ]7 Q5 }0 a) D) |( m5 p以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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2 G4 j3 W/ L4 u8 m8 S+ M" K
6 e* f" t' Q/ n# T( [7 C; y盈利可能性
3 v' q, f2 {, h3 K8 j1 d
/ n1 ^$ r" q; M( p对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值3 P; C: [# n$ O3 W4 }% V
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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# m: p2 G: W8 v8 i你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 6 g; x! ^4 A( y* R
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 w" A0 M2 I, R' @6 @1 S/ a/ D0 v
60%的机会你会一无所有7 R$ Y- |4 D0 j( X
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
$ ]4 ?" y, Y( Q+ X' G5 @由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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3 a, w3 k3 W6 W; C: ]5 u, F增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。+ G" q7 g' T4 W& I7 a6 k
1 X) y! n! k1 w7 {/ A基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)( o, E( Z7 P: Z2 B" O# b# Q! h% p
' C7 s B; T3 lA=博彩资金
: l/ C. j& g' g, |* r# B: CP=获胜机会
: a% N, ]% p8 P' j' [+ dO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)6 l! i8 J/ p& \1 v" W. |
' {! r) p5 F. t L0 |首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。+ g) E0 z! z0 n
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。2 c$ ]" T2 B0 V+ j( \1 s
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)9 J& c8 S5 C0 x6 L; o1 u
- n6 W' y% N. l. ~" p) zA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5). T" ?/ ]# A# ~& R7 t7 X# q7 B
7 H5 y& w) q% E- t$ x) F8 gA=0, j& }, P- ?' ], X4 q# x
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢# B$ @( K9 ]" ~+ P" ^7 k
# g+ y! D$ a/ g& j2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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* C* Y) U4 h) j D+ j7 BA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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! d+ w0 n- I# u- h% m6 @A=0.1
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+ `3 \. _% E& R/ f结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去: v' ]3 g6 L; v) \5 U9 h. m
1 O6 h& h" y8 Y6 A3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)" k5 f8 T5 i$ G$ d( h5 k6 U
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好( C7 H2 i6 Q6 S
/ d k: a8 p5 P7 b' P/ Y( D1 w第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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