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[lastpost] => 2808978 英国国家安全委员会主席呼吁禁止加密货币ZZ捐款，以防范外国干预英国选举（转） 1771983620 jackcool1011
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2735 小时
本月在线: 70 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。
: m: o2 b3 H3 k% A& V% p
$ e* ~+ s3 E9 X市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。
# D5 X9 Y5 h7 k一、先说技术面1 u/ y) o( h! Z6 }6 |3 {! l' T1 @
这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！6 x1 R( E& K; w; U4 u+ i: N
而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！
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3 P% I) i+ h- A6 k二、再看宏观% D/ M% W& P4 h5 v$ O# z$ z7 I; T* ^
以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。2 u% x3 M8 Q5 G, w2 q' k: T$ u
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. i! t( R( C5 X2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。
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ETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！
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交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。, R$ m* r1 a0 [* K7 j% T4 ]# ]
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所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜
r3 S# h m+ ]. n7 {0 k$ m. F, i8 N+ l) Q三、机构在买，而不是跑
9 \$ j( a& h0 ]1 X, E. |2 x1 E4 W散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。: m4 h3 v7 ^" Z f$ O) K9 l1 ] X# T. f
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1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。
! ^+ Q8 P9 h7 m Z, ^3 O近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。) _% b" K5 |2 |1 l
四、2026 年路线图聚焦
+ O2 n% S# s" P2 T9 J* Y升级方向包括：
/ r$ q- \- Q3 s% o; E* D2 T9 d+ F提升 Gas 上限
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增强 L2 互操作性, l) a9 b- `1 J2 J
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扩展零知识基础设施
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% r% W! f& i( Y; e# E! _8 S& R, ?账户抽象
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" s. W# @; X0 l6 J! A9 \/ W抗量子安全
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Harden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”
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所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。/ G$ w( L5 b2 Y" F, b
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这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 238 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13720 小时
本月在线: 46 小时
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