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[lastpost] => 2797890 比特币和以太坊波动——交易量为何下降？（转） 1768580993 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。( ^7 d+ i* k c' b; g# o7 b
! f# G y7 E# T% Q6 q3 SUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？6 ` w" W) U/ s+ ?; }+ z' O9 f5 I
& @& N# N5 A' R2 V) U9 G开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
6 i1 t+ G) Q/ t+ Z& L, ~2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。+ i; Y- h' M" J
6 J+ l% J1 M' D! T来源：Alphractal
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6 `& l( `5 G" D/ g% U/ k2 z15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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+ j- | @4 t8 I' h. _, _9 D尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。- h" s2 V U) R. w: Q0 J# e* f
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事情变得有趣了/ K& B8 r! H9 |, ^3 ~/ m1 P
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。: f- D9 O) d9 L
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来源：X2 |8 `* I4 f( Z; [: ?( Z7 D
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。4 W; m; D8 L& V" ]! i4 `
$ d. e) Q9 z8 B9 \- A- MBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。# L$ ^0 X; u6 h8 \+ W) q7 \
8 c9 R i' c. ^8 q3 \( t" n正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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! r9 d* v8 [( ?8 R随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力4 Q: w; x5 d- W @/ V
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView( P5 \; s! V9 O/ c+ ~; I
2 a. H9 N+ Q6 K4 B. b7 F日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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, `1 _" {6 I/ ^: L! \" ~突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。, c- c" L: ~( ^; Y( Y% ^4 e) Z7 `
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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