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[lastpost] => 2771854 如果Base有空投，你要怎么撸？（转） 1759853343 caoch
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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1 w% {& r$ z# Q W: z: m瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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8 J% @" X8 X6 ~衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”0 ?. x& M# I- X4 P6 l. n% O% w2 |/ M
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益/ j: d0 c+ j3 B3 o+ S9 D
: x/ i7 `6 o$ D1 G: }/ O率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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* [1 h' ]# j' f然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国5 E& `; u5 B' ~
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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7 f n* N; d3 i2 n是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。* b8 [7 `% U. z. U
`% g" j, n" r5 _7 ~* X$ ~' u历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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: O4 ^4 Z" r# W, Q: F' k特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史! E' m. v5 u" A+ E6 h) e" G
7 O4 S1 r5 Z9 q8 w' c5 c标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：4 b& E- l& R* U, Q
# K2 G l( m- f) Y周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。6 ]" `& o8 j$ i! E* U( d" b( ?2 P j
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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# L( `9 D. P: A2 g收益率冲高回落。# `2 g+ e& j2 _. Z3 x& {7 m
8 \) ~0 k; M. K y周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。/ Z P% Y' W4 x4 ]& {( `
7 e4 G$ V- g, W& M9 S+ m$ P( k+ g- p周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。! ]# {5 e; N' @. N' k" \
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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4 j& l% ~; `# r, c7 P' `' t根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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/ O: l6 Y1 o' _3 l3 R$ D" b4 `" [年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。6 x* M: z" R0 \, c& a* w1 `3 T
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。": P& @7 ~0 T) C( h, J
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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