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[虚拟币交流]
美股上涨，长端利率上升打击BTC流动性资产，今年牛市难以实现（转）
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美股和比特币的逻辑不同:美股上涨主要是由Gamma对冲和CTA推动，不太受联储降息与否的影响。一旦不确定性被解决，美股往往会直线拉升。
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降息对比特币流动性资产受影响更大，但不仅限于此。降息影响的是短期利率，而长端利率对风险资产影响更大。例如，一次0.25个百分点的升息，
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若10年期利率上升25个基点，其影响力远大于单次升息。七大公司股票不依靠流动性支撑，而是由引力支撑。例如，英伟达的PE长期保持稳定，主0 A" r. F+ Y- z; _# d5 V( {; U
! C+ I/ `/ c. y$ f# ]* M8 _要依靠每股收益（EPS）和AI业务的增长推动。
3 p+ c6 \+ x0 H市场上承担风险的资产分为活期资产和长期风险资产。活期资金投向银行存款、短期债券等，长期资金投向比特币、股票、长期国债等。当10年期1 {$ O D4 w5 [2 g- O
6 k8 z3 \8 H p& K; K! n* E- d国债收益率高于股票收益率时，投资者更倾向于购买国债而非股票。如果这种情况发生，表明市场处于晚期阶段，风险资产特别是比特币将受重创。( Z+ C5 m1 E" k& K: R4 o8 H2 ]
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长端利率上升对所有风险资产都有较大影响，尤其是比特币等流动性风险资产。
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2 E+ Y& p% m" B0 n美国从去年开始大规模发债，但经济依然强劲，利率在5.25-5.5%。通常情况下，升息会导致经济衰退，但美国经济的增长本质已改变。经济增长依赖$ f; g4 O' y7 H6 ^
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于私营部门和ZF债务的加权平均。
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, W& i& ^ u- \2 O9 F1 h9 o" B6 M! ]美国ZF通过持续发债来支撑经济，但这也导致市场供需矛盾加剧。2023年美国债券市场的DV01 约为7亿美元，今年预计将增加到10亿美元。财政部: B9 m2 x$ I/ Y: B
) ~0 i/ W, |. X) R+ y. F被迫发行长期债券，而市场上长期债券的买方主要是高盛那些对冲基金，这些基金通过短期低利率资金购买长期高利率债券来赚取利差。然而，当前长0 J; Z7 n: z8 L, \' ~! Q
: [1 Y* y1 o4 q( @6 |8 c! ?短期利率倒挂，缺乏买家，导致长期债券需求不足。预计10年期长端利率接近5%，这对比特币和黄金等无收益的流动性资产是巨大打击。比特币目前) o; J6 i; @7 y. W/ I
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依靠套利维持，但在流动性减少的情况下，山寨币可能归零。总体来看，流动性资产难以进入牛市，只有当长端利率下降，市场才可能迎来转机，但今
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- X9 n" x" k }: @; y% Q' y, h年难以看到这种改变。+ L9 o6 C1 G0 G. I/ z: F3 T4 |
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