×
Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯,数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 19967
[posts] => 287722
[todayposts] => 63
[yesterdayposts] => 330
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2651197 虚拟币买卖汇率倒挂,这个钱可以赚吗? 1716269386 天策-菱玖
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12072 小时
本月在线: 30 小时
|
|
历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
X$ y6 Q5 y6 d& Y$ |' Y
$ g6 D8 j& J7 o! [& ~许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
( g7 v7 ?1 n0 C( b. u, N" [6 S! m. E9 N) S6 Q5 J
格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速% f: K1 F+ W' ?$ I% e8 b: o
; n9 f9 R$ F: p1 z- c+ Q猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?3 ^7 {& w% ]# ?( E
5 }0 O* m B( z对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。9 K, M! O/ j" o8 O
: |; ]1 C# A, H8 q# ?/ o
这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。
# r M- r0 E) G3 s: m/ @2 z- Q- \7 l2 B0 ] Y
比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
( `6 A5 R* l% ?& w
4 y4 }5 C- W! C8 s狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
+ A( i& D6 c v
1 T0 z' A! E, E了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,
; r$ R0 z% O) k3 U
9 t" [( X9 _; z黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。" g# s( G+ g J: g% D5 C
& q. [, l- f- z' }+ n当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉2 V% p( ~3 X0 a. E6 T6 d0 ^
, \ c u/ p) r) c, }6 ?0 y升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超4 A# I: M( m: Y3 Q
# B! m" N. ^. W. o4 F4 R高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。* ?1 `( d' s6 V8 P
: @( r' n8 L% ^ ^: b; q$ q7 E回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置
( u( z7 h7 G6 n8 w$ q: Y9 J; P# {7 Y3 ~4 [( ~8 \) v1 f( W
于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资1 F [+ h w8 y) ^! F
4 C& c% ^( @3 q4 ^% r, s: o, K5 I
产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
0 X+ h/ h+ Y3 l! G2 g' \
$ g1 i& b" G" z6 S6 z跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。! A9 c9 k+ `% a
8 j5 ~6 b$ a. R: Q; ?
之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之
' T8 Q5 S3 F7 ]2 `+ F( X' @! V& ?+ o, o8 P; |: M0 a$ y. r5 K% h
于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。
9 W! j) ~% D7 i6 n# Q0 I; L2 w+ Q+ w* C i8 N* Z
而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加
7 i! w* K! u& c& ]1 A b7 N8 J0 O' C/ r+ j% d
速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
- g/ r; E5 t' `7 M5 l2 K% M' Y7 B4 q" O2 S. u* h) I+ H
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与, x6 L1 i+ L) Z' g N$ s5 S) d
* h* f5 Z/ S8 Y9 ?4 o全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重+ ~$ e2 ]+ u8 ~7 O
. d1 Z" r3 g) a$ u% ^要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。
' b! T Y8 \+ C0 L2 N4 |# b$ I3 i& H$ m' c
+ J) l/ g. x" c |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2139 小时
本月在线: 31 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 794 小时
本月在线: 1 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8213 小时
本月在线: 36 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9400 小时
本月在线: 49 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12108 小时
本月在线: 31 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 16971 小时
本月在线: 138 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3409 小时
本月在线: 27 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17430 小时
本月在线: 55 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 11546 小时
本月在线: 75 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|