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[lastpost] => 2645053 香港证监会列出已批准现货比特币和以太坊ETF及股份代号(转) 1714475895 无名的赌徒
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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
6 z. k, A) q/ e0 }, O( a* o# \2 H! F( i2 p. V
许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
5 r% k+ D) Q& P/ i. H& T0 Q% @" h p, o
格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速
6 K/ q+ C6 K" ?, P7 N6 W( M" y2 k. g, I. k7 I8 X# ~
猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?
7 i: o, A2 E9 F1 A! s
' |9 v( V* W. h& ]对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。' p( ^: p6 T7 V5 q& v; j" x
9 H- h4 N& Y8 R( W
这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。: q: J' i; N( `: E
) L% d" X! S5 b, g2 s+ \8 z5 G比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
2 q! W1 i& n( {9 R7 Y6 i' \7 Z, D6 x
狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
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0 @) d4 O4 }% }5 O, o' e3 U了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,. ]. z2 G( g0 c5 Y) V. y" h
6 m0 V, O! L- [+ t$ ?% @3 }9 t黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
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& P. g( N( d9 z9 d# g0 M6 b! F8 G当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉
6 v- ^9 e: b: N6 r. l* G+ u+ ~3 d! O* b h+ E
升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超3 b' ?) M8 V4 j) Q
3 p* A8 ]1 ?* x1 L4 x! s高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。
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# K- r; P1 g' _ G1 n回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置2 l3 u6 J/ y' d( z
; a# N* ?& M/ F/ ~9 Y" |于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资& c: N% J' U! O
3 @4 A5 x P9 F8 u: G产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著, F4 O3 G& Y5 {6 v
) z/ O/ G2 f, P( K3 `$ R跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。
9 Q7 R) G; R$ k) L/ P+ Q1 n2 X- M. `$ `. n) Z( [) ]$ ?( F
之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之% x8 ~ h( r0 W9 F* m7 N
% O9 k( F7 S7 J3 U h+ T" G! E于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。- q. L3 V" X- E* z
* \2 ~) K- O+ k2 D! o9 U- ^; Q% f而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加: q8 h0 J0 ^! m' k" O- _- c" V4 f5 E
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速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
: D; t4 E8 @3 N2 F
: ?- S# N9 r4 C+ m确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与
& c7 F+ L+ U- E8 l7 d$ q Q# i( O
7 ^. i) U* e; {% Z全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重# z: X a9 X8 r3 r2 ^, p, x
3 s% Z3 [4 g9 V* U/ M' J要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。, c6 v7 m4 ^7 |
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