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[lastpost] => 2646010 在美国市场积累 53B 美元后，澳大利亚准备比特币 ETF 上市（转载） 1714490831 rainwang
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当前离线
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总在线: 12042 小时
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比特币减半即将到来，距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半，我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢？8 B. @; }2 [: U8 L1 i
$ Z7 O8 \$ {9 l0 s1 ^& o8 O+ m' w3 [& K" Z5 f/ {( r8 Q9 b9 }& a7 L+ A
# U' ~0 f \+ ]7 `3 i 根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看，通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌，然后经过数月的盘整后，会迎来/ k( Z1 Y, A1 r0 b
1 N+ n( U+ U0 r; h. t1 H( s$ K3 F上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察，我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整，意味著比( _2 F$ r% y9 P/ D5 J5 l6 x( t. D# H! u
/ m+ P( ~/ t7 R) @( Y, f特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。8 W7 ^7 ?' `" G4 e
; j3 E' G- y; _9 n+ @0 q: [
此外，我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段，而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。
3 n. z( ^5 A6 D- x9 B6 I; X
0 M( x: m/ v; T2 A4 X8 d4 M( |* C虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化，但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段，然后在减半后进行盘
9 _2 ^: F {, g' `6 ~& I9 m
$ _7 K1 e& V. q$ c2 N& h整，最终突破向上。
3 q1 s: E) W8 ~4 r; w) t+ B3 a( O9 L, g0 n5 o" X
我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工，而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。
`9 T4 [/ b6 N- L3 T
% D/ ~' N; Z9 Q, O) ^! n- a0 i3 |" I最近的报告显示，随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降，比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计，目前! F1 r4 g, C: D; g2 @0 N
) _% d! k5 Q' [% ?7 f4 d4 h比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。- \# c/ y. K4 F; f2 o ]
" ^, R0 K5 `, G) ^, F& L根据以上信息，比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长，这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨，先决条件便是需+ O1 Y6 U1 L5 ^3 L9 V
* B* x6 z* M# v% I/ G3 c
要清空所有的库存，才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加，我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作0 j6 ^0 e0 ~1 X T! M4 S
/ P+ K8 i" G: X
出的估算，因此我们除了关注比特币价格外，还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。
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- z# \4 _- w/ x m9 Z5 s3 k$ b综合以上信息，我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样，在减半后先迎来一波回调，然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时，价格自. C- L% I: q; b
# J, @: U, _0 _" e9 U
然会上涨。届时，各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币，可能会转而在现货市场进行购买，这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。
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