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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12042 小时
本月在线: 25 小时
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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?
3 `& I1 I9 \- u$ x3 ]5 P" l" n9 f: h; E
8 k! `0 B# b9 w3 Q- [: f; c* ?/ i$ `# `" u1 x7 q
根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来
; ]6 x2 k8 g0 A8 z9 }& p
# h8 X& Z; ]" g上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比
1 r7 N4 D( B. g& ?: ?6 x* c3 T7 i8 v' d# q9 l* p4 S+ O
特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。# k, [: i% n: l- Z Y, I' f
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此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。
4 j; q8 P& e! {! b0 E" a: U" Y2 C4 l* P8 Q. f1 c
虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘
% Z- U2 ?( v* D% e* B0 ?
/ }1 o6 Z; p! f整,最终突破向上。) N8 G4 K$ M3 q: e5 \" @
( l; o. h! k" t9 x& @5 p 我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。
# _3 z$ E5 l+ t
+ T3 V. r- \, t最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前
9 q# ?8 H2 Y- E! I l4 N+ T* a$ ]
比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。
0 q- X6 `# M0 i9 c5 s. w' [8 H% Y8 e/ }- n# s4 ^. y/ b1 L
根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需
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要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作% f- X: f ]" [; R! Q
' V1 I* A! _1 Z( p- W0 v出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。
. R* `4 c& @# q4 t7 m% J/ ?$ N7 \* e
J# U; V8 _2 Y% `5 x$ z7 @综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自9 k0 o, A2 {$ v+ [4 j( I; G3 n
! s3 X" a3 h. s6 }& O) c8 D f然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。
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当前离线
经验:
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总在线: 11471 小时
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当前离线
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活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8176 小时
本月在线: 48 小时
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当前离线
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活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17375 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 16832 小时
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当前离线
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活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12076 小时
本月在线: 78 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2108 小时
本月在线: 53 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3382 小时
本月在线: 36 小时
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当前离线
经验:
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活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 793 小时
本月在线: 32 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 9350 小时
本月在线: 59 小时
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