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[lastpost] => 2650381 比特币突破6.6万美元,交易员关注7万美元目标的2个关键指标(转) 1715906598 小钱儿
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当前离线
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总在线: 12068 小时
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的
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总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,/ f' h* Z5 X0 a% s2 C
- P$ V/ ^/ ]+ G& } Q7 d方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。
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牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚,
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Fidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天
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内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF
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宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿& S) W0 r0 Q8 ~
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枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到
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k线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成
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+ i% {! k6 _* e- u震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死. g1 M9 b1 @- m. ?& p& C# L7 Y
/ X/ M4 V! g1 c% Q8 L叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了7 y$ U$ q8 E) @
3 }1 M4 h" s' R3 w n避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确
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" E8 O$ {& Q; E: E定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时
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间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认
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2 ^+ x; f" [# U为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。
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2 n& z }" L9 H) A4 T0 u( `) O从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑- O7 Z) l3 X. d' P
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,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑! w8 Z9 H5 q, X% h7 }/ u, J
+ Z4 \" C! K! @+ `0 u0 O位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,
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$ j7 T' N2 N/ W! ^. r! u. D2 IEMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。
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考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,- L1 y1 r% D1 X$ J1 Y2 R/ z
5 s$ U K' m/ ~; e O认为比特币至少会去次6万。
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