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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
l( Q) a" }& q 7 m; ?* C+ l" E
平手中水,主队有利
; u& N& t! e; F( t2 m- x 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。8 C8 O4 H& M S8 L
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
( v9 T) s' G& X n 英超主队5 D5 ]- x3 e) f0 }8 `! ]
胜:13场 48%# ~' \# d! l' |% j' s+ y
平:5场 17%7 K/ k, E l$ k( U! i0 K
负:9场 35%& {7 x3 m5 f/ w, g2 p
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
9 l# c" A: z. A/ J7 V
: Q+ N6 r7 [3 q- o6 } 一、初盘阶段! `0 Y; h- q6 ~7 u
具体到水位如下:
- B9 f' y% I! X: J5 g/ l! b* x 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
2 C& J$ P1 l# K; D. \) z 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负5 y% l$ ~& y2 c u! m
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负3 G2 C1 w1 \! o8 H
( Q( X7 M. H# M! S5 v 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
: R5 K% W5 o) y' H6 D 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
7 ^& u+ B$ ]( j+ H 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。6 H8 n2 k9 w& f
; h) R: L* a, m5 [: e9 j
二、临场阶段0 }0 _; h2 Q5 I2 k
- _* n/ O) g2 q7 C3 O% b: U7 V
具体到变盘和水位如下:
0 K' E% }1 }3 b 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
5 V$ R2 }; V$ D& } 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
9 \ Z9 d. ]' A. j4 Z' f
% k3 A* |# o6 D( l; m, o# n 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
" _9 m8 M4 `( x) | 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
( r4 U) n! e1 E7 o* Q% M . n2 h* x8 q* Y0 f8 ^% \- `# q- ]
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿; M' T, _" b, x" x6 S1 `9 f
初盘:0.82平手1.04$ S/ V0 T2 W; e/ ?9 J+ X
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.853 l3 Q8 d6 _: K( l" w( v) i+ `
) p/ O3 r% k! |5 L 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆( C3 Q; L0 x9 m+ P7 Z( `" ]
初盘:0.76平手1.10( m1 y0 H1 s: t; }4 y
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
9 z- {; t0 u- T0 n, n& [8 x ]% F , b6 I2 _2 r2 u8 J! P
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
- Y. Z+ F! w- c- y' ^ 初盘:0.82平手1.04
7 |; P5 Q6 |5 O0 R5 B9 [ 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
7 {3 f6 t6 V% E9 V. E 9 _' T! L9 w( Z+ r$ a7 V e% m; A
伯恩利2-1西汉姆$ |7 O: C, P$ k, f& F: \; E: y% M
初盘:0.88平手0.98
( ]- W* j% S! N- Y8 e 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
8 |! C- I0 p/ M- ~) T! _" f2 B 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。& i7 T( F. s) F. A- z) J5 E: N- W
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
# ?) s K2 N8 t4 j) S 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。3 `' K/ B( ]( o
6 H+ t# k. p% n2 H& E/ _# o 三、球队表现% F* o) O4 d/ a- y8 W( x' B# @, v
) U" b4 ?4 ]) ?: d 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
( o( C" t5 b0 ^& Q4 V' [8 C
! \0 j; K1 ?+ _" w% n( G 四、投注要点# A4 g- H D! P7 K5 B
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
7 M8 g4 p; D3 B3 S9 U" p; G% [. S 要点2:平手降盘、走两头; \& _* ]2 F0 o3 s
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败+ S& z; {! H6 ~2 ?! f
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大4 A* k1 Z$ T: o
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任0 O# G$ j7 t9 I
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大( n) A" V5 i5 v7 l& h& ]
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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