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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
9 w9 c- H; |/ ^$ i: I以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. 0 G7 D2 e j6 l* A3 V( I
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 1 [7 H3 h! V4 B/ q( H& F4 O
以太坊基金集体亏损 ; c' Y6 y" g% P- a9 v) t
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 2 O9 C5 c% e- ^% W
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
4 I/ U+ Z) U7 B2 E' X与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
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5 F( q# F0 y, V# B8 `- |: R6 P+ q v
编辑切换为居中 " M' e; ?! y& x9 h m
流入/流出加密资金(按资产) : v* Z! F0 D1 g) V
这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
+ u( ]( H$ m& |6 |( Z; I以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 : |- L9 y( B, S
# [. V4 r0 N: P+ ~/ F编辑切换为居中
* X1 P: s5 l* V) }, U! R) l! e6月5日的TVL以太坊
- ^2 f+ Q F& \; K9 A但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
4 |' n ^& L* e A- H' z3 Z& C+ K宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 8 s0 h8 o! q/ h) {9 @ s# b
男性讲述金融时报:
# u0 w6 b: ]: [“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
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呆滞的技术面
5 S/ o1 B. \. ]2 I! ^( ]自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 ) [/ P$ P& B& q, h9 \
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
# W" \0 Q* Q6 m6 l: ?" Z根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
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! ^7 u2 W g. L8 ~& D+ @编辑切换为居中 * t- k. [9 A+ ?
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 P. J; z- x5 M
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
' E$ u/ v# d! Y' _8 D交易所的ETH储备正在增加
2 Q' u3 x% F. OCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
! W" R4 O& A$ V' U; u自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 7 ~7 q5 s, o) E8 f6 R3 M
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编辑切换为居中
, ^: R! q& t" h$ l以太坊外汇储备 3 s3 f/ g" G" H* U; A- }
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
_: X* h- W, L) Y/ J/ l8 t$ Y9 @* ?来源：金色财经 |
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