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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 , S: I! W& }" l3 g9 Y
余勋也不例外、
; t) {* R( @0 M; g+ N其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 ; v: d1 S2 Q% Y/ a/ a
是保经济的重要决策！ ' t" s0 X* m3 n8 Y( w3 Q$ y
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 * q4 ^1 p, o3 X ^- x
低点26700-32400、
$ }3 W/ B( x0 K! p6 o' w `& U反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 * b6 S1 M& Y7 y. D# @# |
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
$ Q% ]* ~" n4 Q大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 2 j& ^+ C1 x7 k* a; }- `
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 2 D4 J8 c- L$ v% J- d
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 & d; h G6 N$ A4 f# E! I
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
! ~7 U1 s% X X4 ~2 a/ E其次、
7 e m( w! l1 k" w% ~) l% ]缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
7 T* ]8 m* E) z9 n9 x每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 & {* I7 l- a3 D( a* x8 c. [3 Z
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
% Q* t5 }7 {6 o) u美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
; G# e$ L5 c2 n但回到币圈、
; C6 T/ x: s# M. `7 `去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
+ x. u9 _4 I1 n3 J在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
8 ^. t/ |2 F0 G# N6 L" z而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
E- H+ {& F7 B2 ~7 [2 A个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 : y1 `) ~2 }% m/ B h
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 ( j1 W9 x8 ?7 w( m* R
对当前的底部、影响有限。 6 W, P/ L7 P9 l) ~3 n7 J; |' N6 x
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 6 Z: c7 S; z6 T. r, V
所以27000、即是
) J* h- n: e" j1 u' X7 f去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
: l7 b+ l7 p7 }* p+ X$ u' }- V同时还是去年放水初期低点、
" Q6 R; m9 g; x3 T5 g也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 % F& \/ n& h6 B) z$ K
由此得出的结论是、
: e; K2 l* G2 \9 A* ~加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
) ]& {9 H% \, t: K; T& M点位不会出现太大偏离。 $ E' [$ v. z3 ]7 Q7 V9 |
综合以上、 4 a J: k4 d* f/ j2 V5 v
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 " n( S/ n4 ?& h
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 1 T4 \; p' I P* ^. q0 P% J( o5 Q
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ' Q0 s) v4 l: v% d5 z
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 ) ?9 }. f8 R8 U5 s# v& [" Y0 Z
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
, p, K% F# [( H* S) w即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 $ h3 b E. L l5 @; u0 W5 }- N. c
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 % H# t. h1 I5 G6 J! r8 g
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 , j+ }& ]. [1 f* a
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 : d. g, U, ?& ~$ l( n
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
5 V2 W" M7 z4 I$ j4 n5 f: `高空需至31700-32000间布局、 4 E6 u- q; V' D0 d" p
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
( e( X2 O& e% e( @& @& X8 z. l得不偿失。 8 }3 @& M+ p9 w: t# f
来源：金色财经 |
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