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[lastpost] => 2797541 随着美伊紧张局势加剧，比特币或将跌破 9.6 万美元大关（转） 1768666218 叫我十三
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
" |" Y, i5 e+ R' O! N余勋也不例外、 9 E0 g& o e H. i
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
8 T2 F2 \! A% P4 {是保经济的重要决策！ , f; t- y2 o/ C9 F! J, Z
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 8 p. v0 C( I6 J6 V( Q! w- g
低点26700-32400、 + i% m/ F9 I3 D Y6 j r
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 # q" S6 Q" a4 s4 O1 I" j% H( v
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
4 K# K8 L- j& ]$ V大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 ' F4 y3 b. f5 ?% ^
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 7 x$ _* F; r( b: k$ J6 ?7 t0 {
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 " }# a) ]5 O# t. I+ n
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
- T; g# a+ t! U" ~5 T其次、
& _0 \ S: y$ ~$ V! Q, X* B; r缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 , y% t3 G; ]0 F% v/ ^
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
6 u$ v, t0 f! L1 f等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 $ h9 [( ?# y& C2 M! P
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 , E4 c. i& {6 q( {6 {! ]4 D- y
但回到币圈、
/ v4 ^3 g% o A! C去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 & e8 i2 }6 u' t4 Y6 M
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ' s N/ O. C' ]/ G) Q
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
4 o" F+ V0 T# A7 p1 s) y个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 : j+ ?; q7 Y0 g2 O; v
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
5 }6 q* O ?9 R' P/ I对当前的底部、影响有限。 3 w8 i& i9 J& w6 {9 @7 Q8 r/ j
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
8 C/ O& u. B$ H' u, i. W# w所以27000、即是
' j2 i0 I, O1 l) B1 g去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
' A, r! B, m( ~& o0 l# ~同时还是去年放水初期低点、
6 Y* D# x" W* M5 ^( o也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 5 S4 j; V# T l# {) [
由此得出的结论是、
3 \; T% y' S- y* t加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
! ?' j7 B8 s$ W点位不会出现太大偏离。 : j: z* ~. j7 _# i) [/ y# m
综合以上、 0 m& A) c1 |5 H$ j/ W( ]
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
. C6 N6 r2 J) T! n0 g在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 B# Z! P% n! X! o: ], s
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 & Z3 a3 p3 J- c2 Y) n: }
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
' W Z: Q. B" E0 F; Z那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
/ h- _. T% m$ V# p6 C2 b9 y即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
% y8 ^0 l, Q* g3 |美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
8 Q3 ?/ {5 o0 ]# w% O: h夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
; w7 N$ G5 N4 Q; O大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 2 O: z7 v6 \9 q) r1 x0 A$ z7 m2 u: l8 e
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 / Z Z; u, J6 k
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ! |/ y3 F" }9 Z9 o% N, J& X
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 ( Z; @) I4 J: g8 I
得不偿失。 7 M; y% v; _9 ]
来源：金色财经 |
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