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很多玩家都在苦苦追寻百家乐的连赢玩法,但是对于连赢的认识并不深入。其实百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略是相通,只要摸清了游戏特点,才能找到制胜方法。
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5 K3 M- p0 \) Z2 G2 E一般来说,8 k# T: ? I. N# m" q3 }
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二连赢的概率是25%
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. w7 ^5 ]) N4 ?4 B7 o, e三连赢的概率是12.5%2 d, X9 V3 E5 {7 n+ v
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四连赢的概率是6.25%
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7 M" c/ Q, K% X& I) h3 P4 b……
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十连赢的概率是0.09765625%
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) F. i' j/ h0 ^3 S; l. Q3 c这些概率值是所谓的相对概率,也就是二连赢25%的意思是只连续抛硬币4次之后,会有四种结果,二连赢就是其中的1种,所以他的概率是25%,同样的十连赢的概率也是基于1024次的10次抛硬币的结果组成。: \6 ?) S% o- `; t- M6 O9 q# b' s
% J/ f0 f3 H- [3 u. O百家乐的真实概率含义是:8 E. Z4 q5 ?' p; n
. V& i' o" C: B: |3 z# i& r假定一个口袋里有很多个球,其中有1号,2号,3号,4号,5号,6号,7号,8号,9号,10号球
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4 [. e2 F& u+ T5 R0 Q1号球有512个,2号256个,3号128个,4号64个,5号32个,6号16个,7号8个,8号4个,9号2个,10号1个。7 Q( I% i3 L9 G; F
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你要做的就是在这么多球里面每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸。如果你第一次摸到10号球,第一次一样也可以再摸到10次。
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) K; v- I. I) S* v你每一次摸到的任何一个球的概率都是存在的,除非你摸无限次,才能接近之前提到的概率。概率在个体和短期内是无效的。
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9 ` B6 e- P$ I另外一个说法是,
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1、百家乐不是每次摸一个球,然后放回去,再重新摸,而是每次摸一个球,不放回去,再剩下的球里重新摸。
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' E7 q" x; w* D; _5 h3 b W, t2、概率在个体和短期内是有效的,牌入盒后出闲的概率是:49.32%,但是随着发出的牌的变化,牌盒内所剩下的牌数量的减少,他的概率就会每时每刻都会变化。# d/ X; O* F/ D; ?& B$ t% g
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再把这个概率代入期望值公式,当+EV出现就下注,就会做到平均赢。
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平均赢只是长期而言会赢,短期也可能会被震幅消灭,这时就要算标准差,再接合你获得的优势,按凯利值下注就可以做到破产风险最低,利润最大化。
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; z B6 D6 D- k* y/ c; d对于这样的说法,百家乐玩家的解释是,首先,百家乐肯定是每次摸一球个放进去,只是袋子里的球和你的数学模型一定要配合。; `: g; X ?5 M, F9 J
3 m4 E0 J' P% ^, G举个例子,如果你是打庄闲的,袋子里永远只有两个球,每次摸完一个之后要放回去,然后再摸。这个概念是不容置疑的。
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第二,因为大数法则和算牌对百家乐的无效性,牌盒内所剩下多少牌,对庄闲的比例不会发生任何的变化
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第三,凯利公式的问题在于:形而上学。( h9 p, {( H3 h
( g( C; E; w. l首先主观假设了一个不成立的底部,玩久了一定会遇到被爆仓的概念,当然任何一种模型都会有爆仓的可能,只是单纯的凯利更容易爆仓而已。研究的方向是多维+赢进补偿,玩过Diablo3就知道在Mp8的难度下,打到钥匙的可能性是80%。- q, b2 F* r, ^1 c- c
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事实上,你玩的时候,基本上每次都能打到。
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因此,百家乐连赢概率和连赢策略,对于不同的玩家有不同的理解,如何找到适合于自己的玩法和制胜之道,是每个玩家都需要积累实战经验去摸索的。
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