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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑& s S8 K3 ~9 u3 ?+ [
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凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k( q9 {( T( w+ }1 Y$ l3 t4 H+ w
2 q* h3 g# {8 n! G- cG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)1 \/ b- s: x, @ t& i4 P! \
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [) H( E" \( \0 T
: ]+ h% b5 y3 m( O5 h4 U
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
, L5 K5 h3 E2 e- Q4 {5 g既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
: x1 I3 ^' D* u7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s3 |, p, ~( q( t. J+ C( O
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
2 y$ d' x2 U: [) M* v( \7 Q; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
$ l5 m1 D+ j1 }% n(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
0 }, E! Q; C# u( {, z1 {! N, u* g2 O2 T X% e9 K) `& X2 }
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 4 Z% F4 H U" o; M
% ?! ~# `# ~% ~; n
(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t; g- g, [8 a. N1 A
7 R8 p8 W( [5 }8 r% Y- w, I
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
, ]3 Q2 {* j5 P5 D s- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _, g% t) T, J* [, I$ n4 p: o
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
+ b4 |) w. Q, H9 f# r5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c* D/ c$ a4 `9 Q: l2 Z% H/ p
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 & j7 f- N! r+ ]4 x1 }8 g
. E* q6 j& T& ^5 L
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
5 U: O& `% V+ ~% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
$ G$ ^" | n6 hS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
! x3 c6 c( h N9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
9 v- |) \* O6 E8 R" s( {S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
2 _% V- W( Y, J8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v5 w/ m. I ?/ S
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
% P: u. K$ w$ B( U) g! }: C/ J0 q$ q6 w: R/ R: e! }
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
; G9 g) t9 F+ E5 K
0 X3 z' _4 h' H: W$ u& {- k7 @1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q6 o0 R* N( Y" Q1 p; [
1 V7 W+ u5 i7 C# f4 j' A
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ' t& B9 g m2 C% Y
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r- b" j( f& t6 s# K7 {* L a
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
# w% V' ] b* }8 J9 B# g" u
8 {# H, Q4 k5 a* @; s类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j3 X+ H9 m K& D$ k) G3 G, b
2 M% `6 Z# f3 t3 i3 G" n
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
% L# y6 b. ?4 x- K3 z/ E' T1 \+ h
3 F( B; u4 q. U7 \S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s- o4 J( E/ c! [- @% N# ^7 Y5 E3 |. b
; m' V% T, u, P% O, l8 h8 A2 L5 l' ?
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 " [8 v' B# l( l0 N* o
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a, x( |6 Y7 g5 y; A5 W: ]5 q
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
* l$ E) Z _ Q4 Q: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~0 a9 n% }; m5 M; U. H1 \
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
$ ?0 j. O+ ~9 F0 d( g* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
' o; j* E5 w1 S2 D好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 5 y" d) w! E8 T- C! P- Y+ A9 B4 a' D5 y
) q( ], k9 L T& t
. F! x$ N, W3 ~) r- KB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
. ^# E- M" p/ m7 @# _; |7 A! Z. X1 g1 W6 n$ J3 Q, m! i
于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?( ~+ N8 u. `7 w
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
# J7 H7 V' F0 L. QG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
2 {% B2 d) U7 E( i9 m, q; E l+ D$ n) P# X# M' ]% K) v: {5 {' x+ p' B
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ' `9 U! h8 |, j' I/ b; S/ F9 I
; P- k6 i7 _1 M/ Z4 Q
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]4 J4 @, F2 B$ E3 r0 H
$ f1 t) |* ]" [4 B6 O1 J% Z0 H当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
/ p4 {, F$ F3 }! ^) F/ m6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i- E5 q5 Q; e. O. V+ B- z8 [
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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