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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。- C- E0 u+ A/ Z' ^5 T$ Z
" {" \4 ?, `, B$ L- ~# k7 r
* |. ^! r% e; k西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
" j4 ], X( }! C% X+ u y# B$ n- p* i* O1 \2 X2 ^: o
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
9 u: T/ r) t4 I+ }. N5 Y) D6 D6 f, I0 I2 I" z' a2 h4 U
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
! x$ p$ U2 A9 L' `
& K' Z9 e8 |. J很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
' m- t) B: ^+ u8 K+ j1 \; Z
0 P% G3 c* d# C& q! u6 R; B2 Z: ?- F答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)! L1 u4 F( }9 }7 s' Z
5 t( ~7 E7 D6 Y. v
3 L' F* ~/ }5 z7 _; I- B4 T5 Q以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?7 G: H7 E! l5 W! Y. Z! y
3 j6 z; Z) \) D7 p
* E. Z+ X4 g; ]盈利可能性; Q4 L5 ^) ^# A0 ~; U
; \8 I4 l: Y9 N5 N1 @* c. \
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。0 Z+ H# j- o" ?/ ]* H, K' o% Z
5 y* ?5 ~7 s! ^ W+ E; \2 R增值
3 O1 F- q7 {7 Q2 p+ q. c P* Y: b- f! V9 C8 d; K! \& G# q0 o
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
: A* t: @, [9 J) K/ ? @9 A( _7 P/ z/ v& E
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?6 F# a) N3 O. k1 l; l
& V6 C7 B5 q5 Y7 U& t0 i& v( L% i- o/ K
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
4 f4 L( B. b; e
" |3 ?1 U9 _6 o2 r8 z# b正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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# j5 z0 x0 Z; g' k- V- E5 i% p40%的机会你会收到150元的利润8 N0 t8 v; P5 w
60%的机会你会一无所有
9 f( N. S+ m/ b: K' O预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 + O' y; f; U I8 j: |* ^
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。8 H* J, O0 t z4 F% y
5 T7 m' ~, f0 ~2 S/ D9 C增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。1 d5 E. \* z6 z' J/ @
' u5 d m# X! |8 ?% e% l
基于增值的投注
0 M: G5 p$ A4 k( ^. i: ]
$ U0 V6 M1 A2 m7 b, r& i凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
# S: {; c x0 `, E2 }2 A8 ~4 h# B/ C y" b
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)5 h/ Y/ F/ K8 s% P' Z3 T: u
( r+ U: W' n; TA=博彩资金
! ~& P( \) d8 R1 g5 zP=获胜机会$ Y! P) G( g1 A) T) q
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金): g: V! n% v5 e' x( k
2 W$ d/ M8 _, H2 B1 v% R
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
% ]5 O5 [& [" g7 B2 G+ n
" r4 I/ ]; n# U好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
8 n x7 Z# r. W6 k; U$ O G( O4 i- g: j, J% r" Z% e9 K* P5 z, f
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)& z6 d/ l6 L6 i' ^+ a
" ~3 l9 y, ^3 J) Y, }
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
[1 p1 o; B! Q+ r9 @; K9 l# [( C# Q' m
A=0 Q8 m* F: N6 E7 L4 f7 @
r; g) y# Z8 u8 p" _结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)9 E, I. y/ s& }3 T+ c
# I7 a: i% f+ u! m. o
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) I/ Q7 b0 [4 g. @8 w% O+ J
6 o9 J( E: P4 _2 [/ qA=0.1
- [: i1 p0 f) g1 H& @% G8 \+ f9 \3 {) b1 g# Z
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
7 J/ C% g9 `3 w1 V7 D; E& C5 X! J5 Z3 q2 p
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
6 i3 g! }3 q4 Z, S1 O' Q
+ u4 p* p W' m; k, w% u% RA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)% W$ W& |1 ?" l$ z7 o2 e: C8 z
& [3 p9 A4 e% B2 g) c5 e5 K
A= -0.2
9 K8 L& y0 ~1 @/ |3 E6 A( O4 a; G+ z; }0 g' D
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
& b9 z v) I/ w6 J# N0 G3 I
1 V1 I+ q$ I! D: N' {第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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