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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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. v: Y/ K+ \! w, }, V4 i% i' h6 [但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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! s% V2 F& G# A5 U* ZUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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8 N2 g! [) M& m3 h8 N% r% n开局艰难，但历史看好牛市6 R0 S' P$ P y' }- \7 N
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。5 ?7 P5 @; v: V+ N5 H
" S( a- W: B) o4 T X7 s来源：Alphractal+ A0 K G# m$ w; @* {/ I. g
" d/ C" m+ m' z" k15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了! ?: L( D" d9 X! |0 e* \
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X
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4 T" H9 m& }8 f% r根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。2 O2 P& j+ A' l8 k0 b; b/ o( b
. |- C3 Q8 U' UBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。5 B% A$ G! G, R
/ m+ j" G, @# C1 b- S8 _+ j# ~正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。# h8 R9 U* i. [: i' T) L
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力+ e* ~: q# | g" S" H' _& K6 J
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。. Y7 c' Z& ]7 |% y( {! }5 q% {) q
) o8 q* X. {' ~, r% [6 R来源：TradingView
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$ o: M t# c6 c+ t' b日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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4 i) x" j, ^. h9 g然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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