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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索(转)
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。
6 E; q+ Y2 {# s9 G# K矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩,5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。
) l7 ~8 z* Z0 v这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。$ e, e a9 r" y( {
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价格虽然强劲,但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动,就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅,跌回六位数以下。/ Z: w1 p( \# q+ Y, Z5 D. t2 {
# r0 Q% z' w! i+ K0 x风险如此之大,谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同,有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格,这为他们带来了巨额利润。( G( G4 z N+ a( t* K7 U
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从历史上看,矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么,在市场观望的同时,我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股?( F- s% G& p: k
3 a5 L5 o0 j# U减半后的挖矿经济6 ^! d b% q2 Z: s# n, Q1 B
2024 年 4 月减半之后,矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC,这给他们带来了沉重打击。& J2 @# y* r5 w" p: U2 D
) m* O9 l0 P/ P$ O* b问题是,虽然奖励每四年减半,但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样,但每个区块的收益却只有一半。 o& O2 L- o, ^2 h
4 T& w% I4 M% z& C+ w自然,这导致平均采矿成本飙升。: t$ I4 A {6 H' _$ {
7 ~1 c ~7 D9 q$ m; N到4月底,比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元,而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环,市场陷入了窄幅震荡。
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: } D: z$ E* r9 s8 B; P+ T+ P! S为什么?因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略:储备枯竭,比特币市场陷入低迷,矿工收入开始减少。
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/ _$ h. z7 v, l+ w6 K2 _* v换句话说,不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率(BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本)进一步受到挤压之前退出,加速全面矿工投降阶段。
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9 U1 t- E3 W) r8 x- K* j% B/ l6 l比特币市场陷入困境,矿工竞相前进
W. N" D4 [# x7 g$ c! N) V距离第四次减半还有一年,开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右,而比特币市场一直横盘整理,BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。
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: X. F; y- {3 S( ^: \5 V- y: v确实,比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%,甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。
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但如果我们继续计分的话,矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。
' S7 \# ]/ t) v/ e9 a
& c& \" R# O! P8 p; N l2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。& p7 x8 T5 `5 ~
+ _# O% y: K ?3 J o据 The Block 报道,矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入,其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。
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7 O% J/ t( j H4 }9 H7 O' V" j( t话虽如此,早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数(MPI)已回升至零以上,暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。
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7 b% E/ K3 X3 _) {! h# e3 c4 s从历史上看,大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前,尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。
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7 p/ x- y) s: [/ D8 E这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间,一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。
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# L4 Z+ b* g" |! q2 p, @: g7 d这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索?这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。
" D) U4 {; z" [1 a" N5 X- V; J, B% ~$ p1 H" U$ a
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索?
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