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[lastpost] => 2771764 比特币的 OBV 背离和鲸鱼囤积预示着重大突破（转） 1759829879 天策-菱玖
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。7 [& l8 }6 ^5 }( I) O6 k. h
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”/ ]9 t( h. I k
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金 V+ y* i( N+ }
1 v( ^* }0 j& x$ `2 ?' E融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。# E ?8 X& g: F3 W3 V
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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" b0 \. B# t; m然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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' D5 o: L, U. k是表示：0 l7 r1 c( S# C X
! |2 a9 ?# }2 N; V2 H" G这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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7 O O3 r2 c7 }3 a0 D. k7 b4 K历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币5 S/ Y3 O9 \( T, `. ]. ]* P
7 y7 c0 W6 f3 q' {9 a0 Q特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史1 z) z* f* k4 z
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：" ?& }! B3 [' ?: w
: S) y7 R% ~+ a+ v5 [! F周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。1 d( s* X3 J% z/ V
$ }) q, D' D. Q6 F2 x, c周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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* C6 I$ n& X, P) q |- p1 I4 T! ^周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债! f2 @2 `4 c ]0 k+ f
; g" ~$ z% i* k2 P( J$ ?收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。( l1 K/ A$ s" C6 T9 }
! `: m" b$ r$ Q v8 `( @" e/ i周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。& W6 M. \0 G; Q1 q+ I7 {
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"( o1 c; j+ `% w' f% P( w- [1 [
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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+ C2 F |, n4 [# R6 F( c5 hRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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