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" Y- Q5 l5 R" u! Y+ v. O. x$ L加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
% ^/ Y) e, X$ C- N1 A8 z5 i$ l2 kDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，+ y7 `% o4 i# w2 I
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
7 d0 q8 V$ f% I! g9 ~* V8 Z2 e一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
. O. ?. d% L+ G3 D& ]BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。. f7 K8 l" y4 q1 Y: Q
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：3 p( D6 Y# F+ ~6 I
2024年4月第四次减半
5 e/ r; _% d* e机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF4 I) D1 i9 [% U7 C [& z; C
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
& i/ r/ y8 c8 L5 F7 ]$ {4 r+ |针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。% V% d' y$ ]' S6 B
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务. u, \/ {5 [2 u4 \' @1 q2 |3 J
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。* y( ^; X7 P* k6 G, N
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
' S1 _4 N+ ^. J4 R诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。; |- Q8 Y* U& t' j! e
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁% o# [6 Z- v6 P3 D1 ^
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统8 _: U6 X2 d M* w6 h. y
金融(TradFi)产品。% ]: H0 C r: e
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨! c/ L# @; n0 }+ y% l6 U2 @! Q1 W
链桥」的项目。2 z9 @* o6 g+ t9 J
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉' \" i5 e- p% F( j
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作/ v1 C+ ]' R- S4 ]4 @
等。, X1 F! W* w1 W/ U4 G- G
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用. e9 _! V1 t; M+ A) |$ L3 z
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
. M) k5 u8 G* @& S8 q4 S' K# L五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
' C+ t" A2 q' D$ z! A( ?% zPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位# z- r& x$ K0 z" o3 p
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
7 V! ~2 }4 M- P& PPantera点名了几个项目：
7 i2 Z0 _, v9 T4 pHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图* L8 f& W' k9 i9 W
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台5 v% ]& o6 E1 q& P {: R
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
& K% B* K# u' b+ c7 }* }The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
# B* `. O$ B" S8 }# ]) iRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游9 I6 }& ~9 v/ u/ ^+ s! f
六、小型公链需专注特定应用* Z u& d$ z) O7 Z
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
$ S: K& R9 u3 s' |8 [- e- |至能直接与L2竞争。
* V& d4 v! z% d& i6 @+ q; C0 N也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。4 v5 p0 {$ @; F/ e9 Y, t
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
+ C% J( G$ C+ P9 s$ u8 `成为「应用链」。
" |1 a- Y% T: @' |$ j$ f/ n事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。' f u @" Q2 \2 d6 |; g
, s9 A$ e# @$ a5 N! b8 F
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