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[lastpost] => 2801008 比特币刚刚突破 9 万美元大关。这三大利好因素能否帮助它守住这个价格？（转） 1769555370 sunnyclare001
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 # T Y/ w9 l. K9 F: l$ H/ D* V
余勋也不例外、 7 R& ]: u9 j" G' B+ W$ y! J) }$ s8 H9 |
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 : u% J3 a8 }" c. ]* [
是保经济的重要决策！ 8 v% } N- l/ f* P4 O! v( q4 d
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 1 b2 ~2 a' ^1 O/ K
低点26700-32400、
5 d: z2 |( S: ^- }; D反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
0 j k( F- Q. {. I, T: ]但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
/ a% |& A4 {+ l$ T( ^8 M大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 5 k' O4 T; I: G4 ~* t" X) S
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 9 t. Q) I; p8 `5 j: ]1 u
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
6 t ?- `. A7 s$ i2 s不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 . ~1 N) X5 W9 w( ~, N6 \+ W
其次、
( R& C5 Q+ G @, }& C8 A& Q/ W, t3 p% H缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
* w+ E% ]% } ^( _/ |6 E- V. P每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
% s7 K3 N( Y, d2 O0 \等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ?0 ?2 w6 r7 k+ J0 H$ i0 B" P
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 , }4 g7 Q* h# j4 `
但回到币圈、
4 X" n2 r1 Z# ~1 E) z去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
* N1 m6 a8 C5 T在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 + d; Z1 Z& X, u* {- {! l
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
& l- u- z0 a; r/ e# F个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
' F) f. a4 L0 c( k, E缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
9 w; k: s) g, C对当前的底部、影响有限。 . w: b$ ?: T6 b1 g- ^) A5 q5 B* W
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 , U- x3 z+ S, ?& f/ e
所以27000、即是 % Z- F- ^# O4 w1 ] {9 T
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
6 Z: C" [# c4 |2 |1 g: x5 h同时还是去年放水初期低点、 ( {0 y7 X; K4 Q& H
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
7 A' ]- |% W7 g: i8 h. J2 D由此得出的结论是、 * V# D% |3 Y. i6 G# [4 g! E+ Y
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
9 O$ z6 h, A8 Z) B3 L/ S2 G点位不会出现太大偏离。 % o4 `" O2 K- W
综合以上、
: {0 |% v' a& q2 } z$ U2 `, g8 }9 W美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 * f7 y8 b! P% s
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
1 Z r' R: G* V; o8 n2 |/ L7 s# d那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ( P$ n+ E1 m, `) J
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 2 j" ?$ x* ]& Y! o. Y$ Q$ J
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
! X/ v2 C. X2 c: Z" t% \# n即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 ' u3 Y! G0 P" F, Y0 H/ ?
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
. ]+ _$ s* m! X' m* }% I1 A夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 . \" X6 m3 P* A2 H
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 * @% ?" ?! i) G8 t2 [3 l! W `
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
9 L) p1 n& V' k1 b高空需至31700-32000间布局、 0 Z* M! o* x5 V; O1 I: K
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
5 k4 i1 c2 _% N* d, R& S ]得不偿失。
' p4 o6 }. e& o+ U4 J& f来源：金色财经 |
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