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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
! V D- X% T& }% H0 f' A* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c u3 e. \2 m) Z# r* t
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
$ }5 B- s- @# N' D' u; i& K! _2 o' Y* z9 i" s3 @
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
" F: @+ W. f# I9 B什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [+ j/ \8 c0 i3 @" R' d' S
2 E) ]" J. ], {- |, o& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
2 L" O9 B, t2 V$ O, K既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 7 p4 J' l9 I, K3 S, x
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s! q8 f- ^; _/ l
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `! ~1 K8 M# E! o- P6 T
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d/ K3 N) {0 R) W
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
8 ]# l2 |% b9 {' G, Q# M3 R$ {8 Z$ ^" P$ m4 B* o( s, i" ^4 F) ~
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
9 C( R* K$ B3 O
) t( `6 X2 b) S% I9 k(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t3 G3 u8 A3 t! A5 ~# z% E% C# I
6 U$ E# i3 n% X2 e6 Y7 E% E
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
1 w) X7 J: w7 q3 p' M- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
* z2 w% Z% X* n0 d) g$ B" X# h我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ( X! C+ S/ ^0 k0 G6 Y4 h
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
! }& |+ D+ ?; vS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
6 |$ H, Q( o/ I3 } @
~# P. P4 Z& B4 B- T( \+ u* qS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 # V2 Q9 d# A" l, p4 z
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
( U* V: I& w e9 j2 JS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
9 m6 D: j. b: ]9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j7 Z- d! `9 r, ?6 j$ U9 E
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
0 ?0 v1 }) F4 h$ \. e2 Z d8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v0 T$ `; \$ I6 a7 q. U* {, ~0 \
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
" v- k# D! P* y& b% B7 K; C* u
) h4 l& m3 p8 {7 J! e6 d3 o1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l+ @ b- M8 l# \
$ y: N. ]4 d9 @" d7 m6 _9 P
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q# s# w& T9 C. f! A0 t8 x% a
8 I+ a9 q- ~3 ]5 v9 Y: R9 @7 A" d# ^1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
% h5 {" _2 Y$ x9 u; f: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
/ }% j% ?$ A2 X3 a# J+ F3 J3 z9 }9 oS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T" X" E& Q) ^4 [# R. Y# r0 _
1 x9 ~+ Y9 {7 m) t S: t类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
) D* I$ _$ V0 a+ ]7 I' t( `" U, Y, Z( I$ }9 Y# m$ Z
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
9 M* C+ Z/ d1 P q# W6 B
, z, y+ n2 ?. H3 g6 S/ Y) dS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s7 B: a* i' U9 o! g8 }5 {
; m' V% T, u, P% O
# p! t7 _6 g9 f9 U5 WS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
* _' v- N) \0 B7 Y& P6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
- t4 t% f3 \* C6 t4 r5 X$ O9 yS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
1 z7 _( u3 e" r. h! I$ ^ X: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~8 L6 j2 `2 S1 [5 p$ h
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
6 W% e! L3 E5 w* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \3 |/ L9 v1 E" X* s/ O6 N0 A
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 4 b% R1 Z# `& U
) q( ], k9 L T& t, j: j$ Y% G' Q( W5 \: I; X/ g
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
@4 H. N, U+ ~' C' I4 [- U
; f* [) N# W1 R& }# ~. NF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 $ {' |6 E* O" I5 ~/ {$ B
( T: V" o; V2 C3 Q. a
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?2 w4 k, D: m) d1 f+ f
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {* q, l$ n: [4 _- j6 F
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M9 U4 b2 K! H/ B: `, \( K1 }2 A
+ D$ n) P# X# M
' C0 S% K7 s; S: H2 [9 @G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
8 W1 G0 E0 K" R! j) v; x. ^
, g* n4 B6 j. o! [1 y# lG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
! g1 E4 c* F8 \8 _0 E* R) l
T/ w ^+ R" i1 ^! T6 v1 y5 y当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
$ I* k2 P5 O$ j6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i- n; [- j. e$ M0 r. d# ]) t
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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