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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率. e* K# V0 W1 |) @

0 l; G4 e6 ?; o以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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/ V9 T1 o2 ^" g8 x* u& o皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?. ^9 z; B( t( Q6 I) |

; Y7 `  V* [1 B0 O3 B答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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; C7 V6 z0 n9 S: @0 J# k. g  T) V1 u以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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6 e. m9 c9 Z$ k5 y$ {对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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7 y' A8 x6 ?+ c# Y! S/ r1 A% S增值" N1 u2 m% p' g; T
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。- N1 R1 y. o+ k5 ]
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?* V1 K4 j3 o. T2 ~7 O5 c5 s
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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7 t% ?& Q  t% v; {# L- ~' g- J& ]正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
- {# y% h  R+ |- o7 L, ~60%的机会你会一无所有
1 i, Y3 I8 y% S0 _5 \预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# J0 R1 d8 `7 B. d# ^" V由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。( R3 H5 p# B& A7 b: \
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。- B  H) Q! S- p2 Y4 g$ l

: Y; n: @* m* @" I8 n( Q基于增值的投注
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9 [* f, T/ o! p1 a- {2 E' m凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)4 _# [1 |1 @1 b# L

( `/ r+ \$ H5 {! aA=博彩资金* R" g' v3 l% i' Q+ M9 ^
P=获胜机会1 s1 R# o2 G, O/ V+ |
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金); d( m! A- Z, g9 Q) k% _
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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3 U5 [  W: n9 F: b3 ~好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。* `" E% o8 J) n# j2 Q

/ Q, @) c6 U* @4 |5 ^  b! t" n1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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9 m# t5 g% H0 H6 N! t+ G( eA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)) i3 A+ L$ G$ A& L0 q& I

5 o+ F! ?  s# O# u+ a# RA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢9 i4 u: }0 W8 s% j

1 p. A; |7 E7 n5 L, A2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3), J( s3 Q& U# L- J
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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" [) Z. E! F) _3 A$ m' s  bA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2), U& x! F6 d* V# Y
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1): C* n& j, t7 q. L6 [
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A= -0.2 ) w1 Q( L1 j# Z/ ^1 c
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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) P5 U+ x" r2 M: ]8 h第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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