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[lastpost] => 2770981 今日虚拟币市场涨的都是热门啊 1759500558 爱美的女人
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。: R- n( I/ e6 j! p0 E
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心$ z# b% m( R; n- F" H
) U6 C- h p8 z0 [- V& \衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”( i \* d. L: t" N
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金: V1 W- W0 a5 n A/ f
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益9 w- q, g5 M/ c( C4 a5 E
3 l3 ^* y. u( I n/ O6 z+ e, V率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。, G4 P$ f" G. d4 l4 e
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国6 E- ]) i- R( V' W! s0 S
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更7 ~9 N( ]) S. u& C9 \
5 m% V- m' G+ l5 q8 c8 g6 b是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。: \/ p9 P, o; H, z
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币( q/ g8 O* P) |; H8 }) X: l
( }% i2 {% c p& g特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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2 |! _+ \; F; g4 U标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。1 g0 v6 H- q% n) T
4 W: v# b7 K, Y周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。$ y/ D2 O2 R5 G: U: C8 {
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。/ U2 ^0 `# n& k/ n' u% x3 { w1 A% q
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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, t6 n: Z" ^$ |4 y) v X2 G& X根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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* `# h; v" c1 ^* d$ d/ c年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。$ r+ z' o5 S, p( G" V ]
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5 U9 n9 v) w0 U6 y7 [Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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