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[lastpost] => 2802270 特朗普新任命的亲比特币美联储主席人选与最新的爱泼斯坦文件有关（转） 1769924938 rainwang
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。5 m! [+ Y, k- O3 G
f2 Y/ r/ G( i1 |7 Q: @, N瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心5 {' [# }0 r2 u( U( {( f% @9 C1 l% j- o
5 H$ q! C* `* `衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
5 _/ ~6 H* r. n9 V- T. L4 E美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金7 K. ~5 f! U5 Q' L* @6 F9 [
0 t* }4 Q B% ^5 Y: O/ X1 n融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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1 j ?4 s0 x5 `* I! Y过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
8 `$ ~4 V# }/ B8 X0 O2 U/ K; E9 f' Y- l$ ]$ j
率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。/ W: y0 t z$ ^# T
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更8 l3 i* Z7 A7 p( }: P: O% L6 u" h& h
& U2 Z: C8 ~' E& [) W& ~ ^是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。6 \$ g! P. Y+ c6 y# i
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了： K, p2 }2 d Y$ f" V" Q6 I0 L R# O0 h
; U! u. B* n- ?% `0 W# P" K周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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! A- g) f' \$ M8 m5 @+ A. l周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。, l9 p9 R3 C& ]6 v
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债$ U/ e& G" l; U+ x! a: W1 H
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收益率冲高回落。& e2 b5 m; O# M
! m7 V8 m" Q+ @! }' v% f周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"- L& i: H; g9 M/ Z$ z# w
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。: z; p8 E% D& S$ o9 H) w
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/ F' U$ U2 b9 N4 k% eRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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