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! I4 l* A$ O# a s) m加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
( D3 E3 \6 K% tDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
! B* B7 F Q$ ]. b衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。+ v# v, h9 h1 T/ w9 B2 c
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0' O0 g& Y: z- V- Q8 ^
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
5 f9 ?+ u% M4 Y% j4 aPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：' c" Y+ w6 v$ ^5 ^. q9 Q5 ]0 b" R8 [
2024年4月第四次减半
! V! R; ^- ?% {2 x& I4 ~% B机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
. L6 r! \9 {* i1 }+ Q! m7 K可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock). D% I: |& f0 I" m/ }3 u/ w0 c5 K
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。) k9 A0 d* I# Q# V9 Z
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
% a6 j! o/ ?- Ifriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。4 B/ U1 W3 y' ~ l. F
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
3 c7 p2 o/ e' [% f& c _诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。9 ? r; w, Y) c2 ^6 f5 G$ P( L) O
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁, n* X A, e1 S& p9 [" a' M: E
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
7 f1 ?0 `3 ]+ M" G6 ~金融(TradFi)产品。
2 F# `7 w/ l( Y6 Z6 `如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨 _0 ]% e; u P. X% v4 Q
链桥」的项目。8 b" x# L9 j" f- ]3 a/ x
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
0 x# N/ F Z! z2 o' ^) O# i模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
, n- p' u# @8 J2 d R( F等。
, k2 b O/ h5 Y5 A3 X0 P* KPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
8 T" M# C" o3 [) n# ]1 k在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
* X' _7 ^$ j6 ]7 w# e五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
# E5 `) R5 ^. q3 Q! U5 c) ^) gPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
- t5 z0 x5 c8 ~1 t" u1 l3 [! `数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。! o9 a, X9 `( b6 G8 ]4 n I
Pantera点名了几个项目：2 S8 ^% ]+ H) \
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图+ P0 T/ z& \( e8 Z6 ?) \+ P9 \
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
; [- {1 A4 X' }Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
' ?; o) T8 V- f) oThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划% r) b$ ?! X: ^6 ?- X: M
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游' q1 y# P+ M9 c% E/ s& W
六、小型公链需专注特定应用. ^( D( ^$ P& T( O+ t
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
$ x6 h' |$ `! c, G至能直接与L2竞争。1 W: y% T# j3 U& W
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。& L2 W3 |5 u! E
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地- B1 K8 T3 {. d5 O! _2 ^! ?
成为「应用链」。8 B0 g$ G# m }1 c% L6 e) s
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。0 {0 p7 d+ j3 }$ u8 f& r7 T2 C
Z- O6 M+ R' K+ M9 U7 g
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