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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 8 i, v& u. c( ]) R' q
余勋也不例外、 0 e. c) N* C3 B4 g
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
1 V8 C, P3 Y- Y7 @, h是保经济的重要决策！ 7 d4 Q, ]1 C, A" u8 q! U
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
. t) e$ F! ?) S低点26700-32400、
% ^9 i* K: _4 m$ S& X8 J* y& U反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 ; q4 N" p; S, f& S6 n
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 4 K( j1 j2 q: m; n. g' G/ [( @9 [7 v7 e
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 6 c/ `3 G% j: B: q# F/ s/ D* T; P
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 3 D6 S% @+ N4 w
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 W& V6 _/ G) G$ h+ {$ O
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 5 ^3 i! _$ G3 J9 J9 ~5 ], z
其次、
* V( y! M! ]) {. v% l! E" x缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 % ~4 {6 D& ?, f) Q) z+ t
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
7 N- J7 R% ?% \, U1 O7 B等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
1 c( B8 G$ L- w' |8 Y! @6 K美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 % X4 V- O# p* g! Q
但回到币圈、
3 J: U$ @. u! c- G去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
, A" t. R$ b6 x/ S' ?1 @ m在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 ( D7 J4 U" w, d& ~' t7 m5 Q3 Z
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 " I1 s4 C1 q3 j% ?
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 " r5 ~/ Z) w' R
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
: l: a" V# v/ g对当前的底部、影响有限。
- `/ F- K: `0 j7 Y7 C, p最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 7 L/ C8 u4 a% ~' B3 Q
所以27000、即是 1 [: y f, q9 D& i! v! ?' [9 D
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
. A z' z( z7 u8 m同时还是去年放水初期低点、 2 k! `9 C+ \0 W7 y4 `+ T
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 * a2 N" V! X" v
由此得出的结论是、 # D% H" y u) |0 U: _
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
1 t9 e. {; [+ v+ U( {0 m5 h7 g点位不会出现太大偏离。 , E; E( f7 R' P
综合以上、 : c Z. B9 Q4 q4 z
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
( P% \& [7 s6 ~% r8 B k8 [6 W在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ! }: s/ A! N! Y2 d! w, ^# ^' ^
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 % ]# G+ y$ W6 b( ? p* m# |& X
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 ! Z1 E/ K" d5 d5 Y! @: Z2 O
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
% o" g2 F' S& q% m即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 & G t' A9 p0 x; @) L
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
! O% p6 B: {2 l- x2 o4 c2 K$ L夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
; D7 n+ o( h `4 z* F大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 ) f$ g, k! t/ _8 H e# }. u
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
0 v, ?2 W3 Q8 e1 e. \# @! x高空需至31700-32000间布局、
. ?! x( r3 K' D- e" {7 X* s& S反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
. ?# Y+ c3 _$ ~. I' ]+ M" P# d! G得不偿失。
' `% h/ O3 [7 @5 a. ]来源：金色财经 |
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