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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 / }8 Z7 `- w* N- n% v
5 e- q9 Z& i4 T; ~9 i% s7 W其实原文标题不是这样的
* ^, w) \7 Y. |; p, s: i7 T
& D) {, G$ q; s. s这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
. N9 r3 @) s. I+ E% \( S( R# @& J& }
( p, C& Q! {5 I# ^8 Z ?
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
5 C' x6 y- t6 K+ W' `+ O" t% _他希望能和上帝来场赌局。- X8 J7 w# J; x. W. }& O
) T, ~+ s$ W) Z: F7 o
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。. x0 x' M4 x4 Q
5 S* Z* a: }/ F" {/ E
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」6 Y3 U" g1 l V; Z! k4 V1 E
2 C0 I* p! B% E1 p+ C D* e
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 . W3 X; t2 I H T9 A; y
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
' [) V) m8 r1 y' D; p5 V" C X4 ~1 z$ x, l( E3 l
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。6 t; L1 I7 e+ W$ c' m/ Z) O
, m1 h, J1 M. U6 T5 c- E接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，, M) W6 A9 V1 S
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
2 w! u8 ^% F( w: w0 W, }2 I h长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
; m* d$ q3 I/ t0 M7 K. v因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。. Q/ _/ z% p ^/ S' W6 r6 V: B
心想赢定了。. x) M: I* S5 A. A
4 S3 }6 m9 P: S* f2 ^; [没想到开始不到半刻钟，
" p! }' M5 u8 {; G赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」3 s$ Y8 E! @/ f
) Z- E) H# k- u6 j0 p7 j! m2 e赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
# t9 b+ m$ i) N# u但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
4 H& ~3 ^8 N% Y- y
" ~4 {; p5 e, E X7 `8 Y赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?! `8 J6 C' V$ F& P+ D. d( U8 s5 _
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 ' k# j$ e2 Q7 V
上帝回答道：
+ z, m& n$ q0 X) f8 `; s7 z: w0 H「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」1 c6 U: o& G+ l* w
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
; P+ o. m( D& V8 Z$ Y+ `) k「而不是先发生在我身上。」5 x- E9 N+ w) V, w* W/ I
! I8 U$ e3 M0 }3 @1 f5 w8 j" K6 X
赌徒恍然大悟，$ i& h9 ]% W1 f1 z4 W
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
% {) h, M* U+ I# Z$ K2 V竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！; W) t" Q! p; n4 n+ K
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
/ q8 x( L5 K6 v# [" x1 t0 H上帝说完便不见踪影。 9 ]/ R |4 \1 l$ d
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
$ b Y2 ~2 _% {9 f3 S$ e若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
& t+ T$ ]% H6 R3 m" K2 s' a4 x1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，1 i) k0 a, \3 b: I, p
对赌徒十分有利。: m. S; x- t: }
( S( C. f4 q2 X+ ^
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，2 S0 O+ o: A1 D: E
在还没掷到1000次之前， i$ ^" A& p5 F8 |" a
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
2 \5 k- Z% A0 A0 o+ W" @, |) i" c+ R- m8 d% v0 b( B$ `
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。& Z2 ?# s0 p- x0 n* E
! _9 p8 N+ K1 q2 p3 r; Y. } 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。- `" _. g+ h; i3 [% I% Z% d
! \' @7 |$ A5 T# t 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
9 _8 U! l0 Z0 @) V& ]/ u
, d# i. P s0 ]; D 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 7 j+ y) j k, |- I9 P
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