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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
\4 [+ A# B6 T, G2 z& K* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
" S! ]; l- ~& D$ ^凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k0 r- a: R; F7 K2 l
8 q6 l2 l* q( c) Z* N' z
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
[/ R1 H2 v% a4 h( I什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [: M% J ^5 L* d1 `
' E/ w k# L+ t* q, [3 z- e
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
% h/ {8 |2 t% H1 t, _% |5 l3 {既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
* V( O8 V" U+ y& z7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s, V/ a; s; B$ z4 L/ `
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `5 z& a, h9 R* n) S: f* }1 ~% d
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d0 w: z: o: M3 h/ _" e/ M: n+ f o
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
) `, W. b3 S `+ J8 b* i% D
! p5 C. g4 ~( b3 C3 Q% m; ~(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
0 B) L% m; I$ ]. r2 s0 @# w2 m; ~5 t) D7 y9 i
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
7 j3 Q+ A8 I8 ?5 d) K2 c c. t- i2 X: O
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 & C/ ~; `: J6 q v
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
# d6 C$ R/ ~' z" {我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 7 e3 w) J r5 b2 v9 q2 j
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
% [" ?2 k; Z. l' ^S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 9 G9 M U B$ M- Y7 A& g
' T) U- I: a9 U, \9 e9 SS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 T# I: W2 H$ H6 T% a. b% ^
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
) L4 t5 m6 [, ^. |& bS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
9 ?) z. w O9 l& R& M/ Y9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
- Q* R: Z6 B5 j: z, F" kS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
6 h/ X: p4 m2 g5 W$ _( W7 S$ U8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v% ?1 x# | ]. I; x$ R% C
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 % ~8 Q) w6 X: m
m, g+ A% j: j6 g
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l) u5 ^$ M. u1 R. M
6 f `0 R# Z2 i& s, w( h$ j6 q& \
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
% h; e) Q! N) _. X0 e# U; R, P$ v) A/ M7 {) i, A$ @: x
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
% k* Y: E; t8 c8 ~ C8 {: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r" a: h7 Z3 W' {1 N) N, _% p# G) i
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
' N# I, j" `% p8 b* _' F ], ^6 h2 z
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j" c* {' V6 f. ^0 e P% t+ M
7 F1 t4 z5 b/ J( `' A2 Z5 O
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
# J0 V+ _: S6 y$ ~0 @% b0 I* |" k9 K3 B
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s4 g+ G, j: f/ N$ Q
; m' V% T, u, P% O' L% s4 n2 |% V5 Y R# h: c% S7 X
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ) P6 b; w8 F7 [" d1 T
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a- n% N$ R: u# F0 N# r% b1 r7 o
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 " C1 J! U4 t5 k9 x1 n$ \& e! f8 h
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~' o" L1 @) d$ Z3 O: t4 ]0 E B
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
5 ?2 X3 a8 c% u) y! E* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \3 \6 z/ Z7 X7 Y- E0 d$ y, j& X0 j
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 4 ~5 x% `- P7 f6 _5 b t
) q( ], k9 L T& t) k1 V/ V: ?1 F8 o1 ~; H
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
2 M8 L% |% r: ]4 y5 H+ S! R8 V- ~- L
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 t% X9 u0 p _. a; g: p
, S7 z- V8 \) x1 B0 B2 S9 F于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?( p. ?. u/ g% K; e( ~- t4 x8 ^
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
* F. c2 k* f7 ^9 `, \6 cG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M! B& c* q- r4 D" @; m+ l' D
+ D$ n) P# X# M1 o) J1 Z: k2 v# @- o
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
6 |: D) r/ }8 {5 i8 F2 H1 L) Q* K* b! y, S
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]1 d/ a( b: O: @/ i$ h9 f! l( b: F
( r( q9 k o% ~, ]
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \1 c4 s) X( \5 c. @1 @# p+ A
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i; G& x- F# A! w2 _
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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