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[虚拟币交流]
比特币涨到40万美元还是2万美元？为什么分析师不能就BTC的未来达成一致（转）
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加密货币市场正在经历低迷，顶级玩家比特币和以太坊在过去24小时内下跌了5%以上。
8 ~" `( z' i9 w
0 Q3 U* S* \6 @1 x I( W, W在3月中旬达到7.5万美元的历史新高后，最近的下跌引发了投资者的兴趣。有趣的是，领先的加密货币在过去三个月里下跌了大约20%。+ k& c5 Z% R( X7 `' y, ]3 F
2 _* L8 B" i7 A5 J# v/ ~" z7 R尽管如此，投资者对比特币的热情依然存在。' {( T. {: z$ E( d
) [$ v, I# d ^+ U! }4 Q7 |忽略短期噪音
( u9 H" {+ t9 ` `" h/ v交易员表示，这些波动是短期的，并将下跌视为市场的“常规调整”。+ R; Q" I ~( Q }* w
" M# v7 @8 @( g/ a7 _7 H& F2 @8 ^2 qAMBCrypto对储备风险指标的分析进一步证实了这一点。6 l/ F7 B1 \9 R' w3 R
+ l& x1 v+ r( |( k9 x
这张图表评估了长期比特币投资者对价格的信心。在撰写本文时，储备风险为0.002，表明BTC持有人的信心。
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6 U, k2 h, Z3 M随着最近价格的下跌，这可能预示着在可能上涨至70000美元之前开始积累，从而使看跌头寸处于不利地位。8 H G) k4 N/ X/ l$ r! D- b& ^
a$ z2 w$ n" S! z! o$ P7 w6 y" Z阿波罗的联合创始人托马斯·法勒也表达了类似的观点，他说：，
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“价格可能会降至4万美元，但可能会升至40万美元。这就是事实，这是一个很好的赌注。”8 L8 X5 ^+ w7 e, o4 J3 l4 y6 h
Raoul Pal将其与BTC目前的价格及其最近的历史新高（ATH）进行了比较，他补充道，
: k1 H" l8 z/ ^0 H$ u
( b; u: E# l- w3 J. ]! q“这是BTC在12个月内第四次修正20%……很普通。”
% {4 _4 M2 C2 W' a" @# C# O批评家就是批评家* C J2 h4 a, x
然而，像彼得·希夫这样的怀疑论者对比特币的前景持悲观态度，预计比特币将回归2万美元。6 [. m8 I6 a) a* X
2 _$ v6 ]- b, M. h( P加密货币分析师Rekt Capital指出，, r D6 {( B8 E3 _9 h. t
- e. Y! W3 c& j* o& D“比特币越来越接近其最终底部，每多下跌1%。”
, o- R1 h# H% [4 J$ j! P* t尽管受到批评，加密货币交易所BitMEX的前首席执行官Arthur Hayes在其最近的文章《左曲线》中认为，BTC最近的下跌提供了一个买入机会。他说，. C9 t- p' C0 m
8 X/ b5 h, N/ |& ^- m
“这是利用最近加密货币下跌缓慢增加头寸的最佳时机。”
7 H6 P, j) _ E3 _" n' V; U此外，Hayes强调，在实际收益率为负的时期，比特币是一种替代投资，可以对冲法定货币贬值。6 u% _. O4 c, l. A
! p% ?% R6 g. K总而言之，这些交易所表明，尽管经历了过山车般的旅程，但比特币的长期前景看起来很有希望。5 m4 L& @; _3 _- P
5 S& c4 x1 W, p0 c
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