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[lastpost] => 2646238 进入加密货币市场需要注意些什么?-转载 1714482231 不洗脸都帅
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12042 小时
本月在线: 25 小时
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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?
; O- t' j X- `( @0 c, ~$ `" ^6 h
+ [: V7 P, b: Q8 v4 G' F0 A& Q
) d O9 I0 r$ ~ 根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来
0 F! j7 d. E h- s7 s5 ]) J
& q8 ^$ {) z) K& h5 C" A上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比
, | {* }7 d+ |
6 K$ X. A% k X$ q) W) t& `4 p, K特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。
% p! u. f) t% ~$ G
) b0 ]2 [. ~# \& T3 N8 }此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。
" w% d* ^. T+ a, ~) [5 r
0 }4 ^7 T2 R) M9 g! e/ n$ @; M虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘% a G! K1 B1 u! R) Y" z" J& h# i
5 v# F5 j" b1 \; K+ @: @整,最终突破向上。$ M- m. A+ a0 r! L( \, |' ~
" _. j6 _) `8 E4 r! K( C
我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。* X# S, U" B( ^
7 N% I2 a; f! p' J% ~/ H: H! p0 r最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前2 Y8 b% Q. C Y$ x1 H" X8 R7 v
; g& ~& d; t* \' {* k8 M比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。
2 r, n5 G$ w M$ M- Y. j+ l$ ^7 g: N9 T2 R: `/ e/ o# [7 Z( m) x2 q8 \
根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需7 k/ |9 [9 U1 V9 I$ d5 k9 [
- u0 B# L2 F; B/ H: ~
要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作
& Q; i; R8 _) }* }
- P# T: ?% W w' s8 _& w2 p出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。6 B% I" F8 X) j7 z! n
5 W( z4 M: a% Z4 H0 z综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自5 f; E* P% Q* z& D( S6 z
6 I5 C1 F! e; j9 Q8 \
然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。/ f$ ?& r+ {; S7 D0 {2 U; X
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 11471 小时
本月在线: 124 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8176 小时
本月在线: 48 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17375 小时
本月在线: 103 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 16830 小时
本月在线: 168 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12075 小时
本月在线: 78 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2108 小时
本月在线: 53 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3381 小时
本月在线: 36 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 793 小时
本月在线: 32 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9349 小时
本月在线: 58 小时
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