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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑" ]5 O, g4 T9 y1 k$ }. q9 `6 Q. Q1 Z2 x
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k8 }- n& ?# F# I! [9 L- n* k! _7 U! g
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
6 d* u' N& j5 \. j什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [/ {' B" f/ ]2 |+ ]* p
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% x; |, t6 b6 D: M6 _6 G# Z既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
: [, ~5 l5 R* {0 x/ x7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s4 t3 k+ T4 G8 o) i6 r5 [
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `/ }* Z! _# \7 I7 z
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
6 F& T1 @/ M0 W3 X' n(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n6 W) m+ m2 v" i" @5 {8 B/ V
`! ~; k+ h) R+ Z- A7 e
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 3 k! I6 x; m2 E) v. }$ N
0 H( }, t, k3 }7 e' G# L
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t( O$ M" d- D4 V$ N/ t) h
0 |% C$ H+ ^; s
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
7 i9 v% z5 J( c7 f% i7 A- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
9 C* ], [; n4 M$ D% b% I$ m1 Q我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
@% ]$ D6 i4 u) V5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
3 C( W9 G7 ^, g4 d5 }8 ES1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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- g- I! u. ^# p! s" SS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
5 p2 N- k% A3 V* \% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
. l$ j0 c. |% Z5 E" qS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 6 h: q+ j _7 I4 v
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
: ^/ u t4 X+ o$ r, Y3 [S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 . J) l$ m5 ^8 C$ D+ ]0 j$ I+ t- ^, A
) p+ N, X% q1 m1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l) W! a9 K' ?* _9 b, a# d
. d! \. x! e+ s1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 # ^, o, z7 c% u+ M
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2 j. O: s" R% ~, f. l v$ JS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T$ R7 u- d% f L# g0 I: ^
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类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j, E- P2 X# \8 ]
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S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; % T- m e" z* n% A$ m& b% n) d
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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' ?6 O' H T% h0 V' {2 X* i9 RS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ! x0 W) R$ P4 X
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a' f8 J! D1 ]% Y" |0 B) Y3 l( Q
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 1 a+ U! T4 l7 Q0 s/ Q7 M
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' x" k& e/ g7 o& b( g: c& N; a(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 & ~7 \" W6 ~' i) w8 f3 ]) Q7 ^5 q
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
0 }0 ]1 z; q) M
5 E& n" p. U1 s: A0 l于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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$ h& i, u9 ~2 }8 \7 I9 OG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M3 j# t, x% U& b3 A! F, H0 D
+ D$ n) P# X# M1 o- ~& R; `9 V& y0 f* ?7 K
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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7 M/ F% J; Q" w: d) e* |4 LG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
: W2 U0 ?! t: n- s( H9 X5 u9 p7 D! x& `3 N1 b' ~$ x
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \0 u* T; N% a0 ~ V2 D+ ]7 C
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
# C8 h8 f6 Q8 g5 c: ]; u7 E5 q4 Q通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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