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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。- |& e' M7 i+ F/ w: w+ ~( L
% U$ I5 E# N7 r' G比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
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7 R# I/ K" W+ _. w% U8 I( P, R1 ^严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:1 F! k1 _$ _$ e* K/ v/ C
% z5 P$ o' K6 Q" l一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;) x% W' E. J' S
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你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。' s9 A5 N/ {0 |3 Z/ h+ G9 p
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那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。
9 `$ m" ^, N/ L8 q1 g$ P. o; u+ O) Q
你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,
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6 i, ^$ A$ r m J+ X1 m只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。$ l: f( l' y4 a3 k
" ]9 C& i4 ]. B0 O+ W y
这是四二法则中的“二”。6 H4 t6 i$ t6 A0 z
5 b" V; D" }8 g1 z2 f! u当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。" l) U5 J2 _9 i3 a, D
: U" s, j# W0 F& S. W3 @比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。( l+ ~( {; g" \- h- i% _: l8 m) C s
. s$ D1 V; I; B+ U; _7 a不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌
9 ?2 x- Z$ }* p3 m; ^
. X1 D* c' ]/ ~: Z* ?4 e那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:: E. e ~9 a& _0 l
$ X6 J8 g# I9 B0 K* [9 `
1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。; p7 x( E% x2 P( `
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那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。
7 ^$ [% Q& W1 H
* a. M& Q. i3 o& w" F% i/ `这就是四二法则中的“四”。
3 D! A( n$ A' [6 T8 F! t" f- K) d8 x. z0 k5 H6 u5 ~/ `6 u
总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。
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