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[虚拟币交流]
以太坊预测转向看涨：第三季度可能达到 3000 美元吗？（转）
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随着 345 万 ETH 累计价格接近 2,500 美元，以太坊预测获得看涨权重。这是否加强了 ETH 在第三季度突破 3000 美元的理由？
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以太坊[ETH]第三季度开始强劲反弹，在不到一周的时间内收复了两个主要阻力位。6 F4 B0 ?: A' Z8 I8 K( E+ r
3 |2 Q3 u) t w8 r2 Y* V3 o6 p毫不奇怪，这种抛物线走势会促使交易员大量做空，其中 60% 的交易所头寸倾向于看跌。; E3 Q ~) D- } x/ q( T1 Y
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要么是空头抢先拒绝，要么是他们低估了 ETH 冲动走势背后的力量。据 AMBCrypto 称，此次僵局的进展可能会影响未来一周以太坊的预测。
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第三季度以太坊预测的分歧
5 ~. g! }8 E3 a+ Y. ^$ \% {" Y8 ~有趣的是，以太坊上涨近 7% 至 2,620 美元并非只是又一次反弹。相反，这是对上周 2.4 万美元下方窄幅区间的技术突破。
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该区间是在 ETH 于 6 月 22 日跌至数月低点 2,114 美元后形成的。
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) {4 |. m9 k+ \+ B% _* tETH 在不到 20 个交易日内累计上涨近 23%。通常情况下，这种持续的盘整阶段会成为持续上涨的跳板。/ z1 T# K( o* } A, v! U# u q! S
% V0 `" L" T$ X. \但背景很重要。在 5 月至 6 月的周期中，类似的以太坊预测在 2.8 万美元时就失败了，未能突破 3000 美元。
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4 E/ |: p% R1 e随之而来的是急剧的去杠杆事件，导致 ETH 在不到两周的时间内下跌了 20%。/ L! T T p3 L
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快进到现在，以太坊的未平仓合约（OI）为 365 亿美元，抓挠回到 6 月中旬 417.5 亿美元的高点，就在那场大规模清算潮之前。, h8 `! t) U: }! ?1 p' \3 |
L' e7 {+ K9 u+ C2 j. R S y因此，空头纷纷涌入各大交易所，预期市场将再次出现上涨，这并不令人意外。
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但这次的关键分歧是否会成为催化剂，证明空头过于倾向于不再适用的叙述——这可能会重新调整以太坊未来的预测？. x/ ~4 f2 ^. j' b8 m6 \8 k
* X, a# s9 W, x8 uETH 奠定了坚实的基础
: Z+ O8 v. p0 Q9 D4 F0 |% r1 e以太坊在七月份的开始并不平静。在本月第一天大幅下跌 3.2% 之后，E第二天，TH 股价迅速反弹，上涨 6.86%，引发了典型的空头挤压。
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至关重要的是，以太坊预测的反弹不仅仅是由 ETH/BTC 比率的 3.78% 飙升所推动的。4 A( A1 X' q0 b3 M+ o: K1 k' Z
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来自 Glassnode 的链上数据亮点2,513 美元至 2,536 美元的区间是主要需求区域，该水平已积累超过 345 万 ETH，这标志着 ETH 成为数月来最强劲的支撑区之一。% r+ ] g) Z0 J2 D/ y
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有证据表明，现货 ETH ETF流入量急剧飙升7 月 3 日，该片上映票房达到 1.48 亿美元，创下近一个月以来单日最高纪录。. z5 p3 v. ~: T
7 r8 d& w2 ]0 w7 G事实上，7 月份 ETF 总流入量目前已达到 3 亿美元，凸显了现货需求的稳步增长。& f8 n: v) P& {. s: C
, @6 D+ t# C0 n# y1 h这种分歧很重要。3 \5 x2 M5 Y% y/ V# l* @
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将阻力位转化为支撑位是收复高点的第一步。随着现货资金流入的增加，以太坊的预测似乎稳步迈向其 3000 美元的目标，并且随着第三季度的展开，以太坊可能还会进一步上涨。5 e% D) W! i; j5 m4 G- c) w
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