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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
, y5 j9 M+ r7 p; B! U$ R L- n2 W: {# N( t+ j+ y& F' C
许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价5 G' n$ n" f4 x9 F! C% V
. W- ^7 f3 ]% \+ j
格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速. }) | b& z+ X L5 d. L" F1 h
* O4 O) t% A, m% o9 I8 ?$ S& K% H猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?2 r/ B6 p" j9 \; W( Y) Q/ f
! A# K" s6 d2 v7 m# y对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。
! @: {, ~3 U: `. }2 d0 I7 R2 I: G+ v* c# S' N {: t
这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。) @5 }3 I2 Q1 Y' c# O
5 [6 o# [: U& U A" ?: E比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
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+ ~. R* m e$ ?5 _. h- I2 e狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加0 j% X) U6 C/ ]2 I
' g1 b6 j; K6 G; `+ m了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,
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" R4 G$ E9 s/ y黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
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当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉 g% R% L* c7 t0 @: Z# @
+ A E+ M. B$ U9 K# i% b' d3 _9 s升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超
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7 G9 U! {! n" f. h9 Y高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。) W; o' D+ h8 f( ~; |' E
7 ?. B6 A) O/ r) h
回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置# i* }& O0 G( I: Z
8 N+ Q, X; X, t' ]/ ^
于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资0 l5 g w# c: }3 E3 U
1 E3 R( X5 i3 y5 ]' W* ^
产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
; s: l8 d ~) k3 e$ o& U' C
9 V3 v6 p: ]7 ~; y% }跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。 |/ G. y; U! N
" U% g+ b# R5 @之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之
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于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。
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: y0 ?+ |' [' O6 y而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加
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+ t G( v! l/ d9 L速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。) h, u# m; ?. `9 B$ b8 s
- W/ Z5 U& Z; m; Q
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与9 [7 `! j4 s; Q! a0 D* p; i
% f1 Y& y+ _7 d! q8 z# U: N! X: e' u0 W
全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重0 A( Y0 y4 Y, ^: L5 f1 p+ m
- ~8 n% c& Q& Y4 q要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。4 Z7 M- x# t8 ]& X. w
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