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3 Z, ?( D( m" `/ [; g" n' W8 O: _& G0 C7 O% e% O% U2 p: r& ^
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干货——BTC挖矿电费成本到底是多少？; j: \( r; a% S4 _4 [8 K) V
很多人预言BTC在熊市不会跌破主流矿机的挖矿电费成本，包括著名BTC投资人李笑来。为什么这么说？可能有几方面原因：一是从历史经验来看，BTC确实没有跌破过主流电费成本。二是有一个逻辑就是，如果BTC价格一直跌，跌破主流矿机的挖矿成本，那么这些大矿场就会直接购买btc，这样对价格有一个支撑作用。那么既然明确了价格与挖矿成本存在这么一个关系，我们可以试着探讨电费成本问题。' N- V. ~, `4 ~1 ?/ |* M
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一、要确定电费成本，首先要大致预估挖矿难度的变化值，这样可以基本确定挖矿需要的电力。因为在相同电价的条件下，电费成本主要由挖矿难度决定。/ i8 C- q( O3 I/ k) g
BTC历史挖矿难度变动情况：. Z) X3 S" J7 y$ p$ B! S4 X3 s' B
图片：不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图
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7 I* s0 g7 m+ n: f$ a+ W很多人觉得熊市挖矿难度也会同步下降，但是sorry，即使在2018年这么大熊市，挖矿难度也增长了近2倍。（难度按照年初首次统计，年中基本呈波动上升状态）
8 a' `3 F7 X* U- q! J好了，那么我们取难度涨幅最低的值1.6倍来测算2019年的难度，测算下来，每期难度平均上涨约4%。这是我们后面测算的假设前提。
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二、于是我们就得到了下面这个表。6 A. k7 A" Y# }1 [! x4 q% p
图片：不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图4 R3 y+ e9 [ Y5 c! F
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好了，很清楚了。第一档，家用电的小散，早就关机了。; G3 Y. b ?1 j: `$ J4 ^9 E
第二档，普通水电、常规托管电费的，挖矿暂时没亏，但是算上矿机成本也早已亏本。
. h5 J T/ v2 U! m" |/ r& Y第三档，老少边穷的风电、火电等，如果买矿机的基本也是保本状态，因为按照1台s15每年大约挖0.3个btc，需要3台矿机同时挖1年才能得到1个btc，而矿机的使用周期差不多2年。
' f5 v4 n% M, }% ]4 Q9 ~很多人还说有第4档，伊朗、乌克兰等0.1元甚至不要钱的电，请问有考虑ZZ、安全风险没，真的去的也是少数。呵呵。, t: C1 \9 c; F* k j0 I
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三、那么又一个问题来了，大家都亏损或接近亏损，为啥还有人挖？原来有一群人矿机成本是很低的，比如极寒同学，他们在新疆的矿场，BTC成本肯定不到2万。所以所谓的主流矿机挖矿成本为什么可以基本刨去矿机成本？明白了没。
9 S g- T) l1 f/ \8 J* ^ m( Q当然，价格主要由供需决定，难度、算力都是随着价格波动。所以并不是说价格没有下降空间了，如果价格继续下降也是成立的。有什么疑问大家互相探讨。
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挖矿这个概念和虚拟币关联起来，我真是一点也弄不明白 |
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