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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
+ q1 h' A' |* i7 ?: e     
( z  J, @4 }, M+ t7 w8 I     平手中水,主队有利8 D/ X3 z% B5 D3 \
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。+ H) D0 v+ p5 m; e" B9 X5 ]- |2 W
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:; k! p1 c% n1 h) h2 ?
     英超主队
' _) t' P3 f! C! s; B% `     胜:13场 48%
4 E( H( r2 {0 X0 \     平:5场 17%6 i, ~0 M1 Z- {' I7 L: F: r
     负:9场 35%
& [3 M8 \* X$ E7 p" N     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
9 s$ s7 f/ p; L5 E0 w' _; r& W) e     
! r0 L( N) N  q! k0 ?# ]     一、初盘阶段
: Z* F/ }8 x/ }. `6 s, t     具体到水位如下:
! ]. M3 q( r% C+ {/ f! y     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
, G* h$ N* J8 ?" X+ y( [2 G+ `     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负$ k& V5 ~2 t( l+ O' R$ m* _
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
7 x2 T5 e9 u. o3 o' u     
2 I7 Y. I5 ]: ^8 N/ h5 L  K) c     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。# i: |5 V9 s5 e) b9 U
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。, [% H  w' y% {, x) _9 v
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
8 _& |, L4 I5 i: D+ y     
- Q- N& I! @" `     二、临场阶段
- H2 n8 p9 E$ K* \/ X1 ~     
3 Q, K/ l& y! X" \: z     具体到变盘和水位如下:6 @/ g/ X4 q$ |1 O
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
3 _0 B9 o2 D  v8 W     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
( U! C. D  ~+ O) p( I- Z     
5 K7 H6 r' d6 H9 m& v     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
* w8 b6 l3 T( F) z     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:/ N" m- h' x5 N2 ^
     
; b" w  f2 f4 l$ K/ i" M     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
; q7 X$ Z, J$ ~     初盘:0.82平手1.043 c; B7 r+ D# ]. D* F: {
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
$ n: O  l2 P/ B0 M" s     / i' {3 e  s3 z; @
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
0 B9 b7 r% Z9 r$ Z     初盘:0.76平手1.109 u* O1 h" A( g6 a% F
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.911 t6 P/ _) S/ w6 N& r5 h; o4 s  a6 W
     6 H+ _( J* p5 L, N
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技2 `& S( y  i% i( s; R
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
8 W& R5 N1 D6 o7 f, e6 ?     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
8 P- M1 x# z9 p2 p2 L& o% T; ]     4 Q4 w- U+ ?3 c9 b, M, h* h
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
1 I/ i$ {" w% W8 W* L     初盘:0.88平手0.98
7 @9 w$ z- d' s4 e     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
8 @; u7 F6 s! u; M& n     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
$ ^( K* U, {) H7 L! I" {! `     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。; v# p3 i( c6 r/ ?1 _$ }9 Z% T' \# |
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
; n6 ~7 {2 n% q0 t' y% M# t     0 o5 o$ j" J) W3 ~: G3 R
     三、球队表现
  d" Y, ]/ O- D$ i7 L3 r     2 i9 [0 ~+ x1 Q8 Z0 L
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。0 [% q8 w' h. d9 [/ N
     
& I. [4 R/ r, p" `! j1 c# H3 s4 S; L     四、投注要点! p: X8 Z4 L8 A3 W8 L. u
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
2 z3 K1 |* X) J& f     要点2:平手降盘、走两头4 C4 ?( {8 n: g2 m
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
1 P1 r; \/ [8 @  Z- A% n) m+ W5 l     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
9 S8 e# G3 I. A0 q7 n/ X) ^# S     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
4 a, a8 l; c8 E' g# `     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大# D& O) _3 K3 Z# [% q  z6 L) K
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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