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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑# f. X2 w1 d! u! z
* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c3 u* d$ L) x" z; Z6 s& d3 T
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k8 S" K7 p. S' d. N: s
- ~8 M" @, f, ?! h0 ~, A- e& ~
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
- B7 V5 ]: i b9 L什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [: X+ X0 Y+ h, q# P% }% A4 O5 a& \
) l \: n4 l) v# ]% H& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h `. n0 [# n* V( c- ^
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
' O. k. h0 h' h; f3 R7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
# V! c0 r9 ~% ?" E做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `5 k% `0 r/ u4 E
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
- ^6 j5 G/ M+ T" x(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
. f+ \, ^- B! F* g
: C+ D0 d5 R6 I(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 7 N: m/ { i# f
( e: O7 C! b, s" I, ^6 \
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
' J, }- m, l* S! a9 V9 v% G. U; I- w
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 , N; Q1 S. }- q. P$ X8 S
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
5 T0 K2 K; p( o/ N4 _, q/ C& Y我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
! ~9 V3 X ^1 p8 y+ a6 N! X5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c/ V1 L$ d5 ?* p9 \
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
6 e, w3 N! N7 I! Q V3 q5 |: L
! R$ m1 ^. ^8 D) \2 W2 f7 DS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 4 o9 K3 x) c- C9 C/ q
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
$ G+ O. T: ~/ A7 xS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
' ]/ ?4 H" U2 ]6 f7 {3 j9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
3 o; E: D" \2 Z% l/ U& {S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
w y( |3 E# E) `4 s' U0 C! C8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
; `# f/ T6 ?; J @1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 3 B0 m2 u0 n! }0 T( D8 O( B% E8 {
4 W) p: `+ _- T' ~$ t
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l: F) t; U8 B: B5 e% N' |
3 O. |# S4 r2 f1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q7 @! H8 E( _% l: r c$ y
! b; P% x$ M% P8 h; [$ ?8 o1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
" C; b6 W- B5 X' z' \$ Z: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
7 \( g. U# N6 \; cS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T+ S2 E9 O) `' y* x2 P' u
; T9 f. N! H4 i: x( r9 _' w类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j% |8 D: Y, b/ ^4 u2 @# {- O8 [
7 p" t& d' R1 q$ `, g5 E9 x
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 7 v+ Z5 y0 W, ^$ g
& d4 j7 j+ O! @! A+ cS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
6 ?/ A; O8 h, T; m' V% T, u, P% O1 o, d8 @# ?7 c' F
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
2 s# B8 E& l2 D0 U6 \5 j* Z6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a0 n$ S+ ?* n5 r
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
! n1 G& {) ~1 `! z: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
3 ?$ N+ \6 a9 r0 q/ l* o" l(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o+ D6 { W; B }; F2 h7 k0 I
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \- \6 u0 `& n: a9 P
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 % s& |% z* s/ P6 j0 g9 H
) q( ], k9 L T& t
1 |+ A( n5 H( BB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 / D- D9 c7 Q) s8 Y4 {% M
0 |8 i& T6 t3 H- K+ uF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
+ O/ [/ X3 a8 h
4 n2 z) x+ F/ N! [/ G% c3 T% [于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
" k9 t, a, C$ O9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
9 r% k% T7 a1 L; \- [G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
* _1 D: x3 `4 ?, l+ D$ n) P# X# M" z! r& l5 [3 ?8 \' \
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
- O, ~9 M$ W4 l* `3 |, ~* {. |5 b; ?: E$ I
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
F F2 `8 ^ N _8 G8 V
! b' o! L0 y/ O* k当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
( ]: t% O: U8 C' p, v6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
, b2 I9 Y6 i1 k/ W% O8 I3 R通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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