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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 5 I; _# X! }" } `. `! P# L
余勋也不例外、 / P0 Z: a! D/ P
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
, r+ y! D0 _8 D5 K- F# r k, j+ _4 \是保经济的重要决策！
5 h' i- H. J) t" G. I6 G- v这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
5 u8 Z3 Y+ V" r8 P5 d低点26700-32400、 4 x) p) J8 q" w$ _4 h5 I$ M
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
* }1 ~( N$ m+ v, @( B但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
) t. F2 K X8 C" n3 `大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
3 F% S; v' K: o( L" x$ f涨幅就已回撤过半！ 1 `# d1 F, p) ]3 |% {
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 ' T8 Q5 u% p* D% o" L
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
% Z# F1 f, F9 T% O其次、 ' m) P- O. B4 h) }& `: w
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
, n5 D; b1 I8 X) I每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 ! d# U1 ~; |$ v, F: N8 [0 d/ A8 t* ~
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
) Z- B4 u, D* M7 o* G5 S8 X美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 + b1 B+ c f/ E( _
但回到币圈、 k& h# F4 @0 s2 j$ D; T
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
9 f: V. s7 ^1 ?+ l6 }, L在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
# E7 i, U, Y7 z+ J1 i; p6 i9 ~而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
5 ?2 k2 |5 Q2 B! c. p# z( }个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
E7 u( L& _' |% a" d缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 , _. [; L: d, ~) d0 m5 ]
对当前的底部、影响有限。 ' i G ]3 ~ \8 n
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 ! d2 x+ P, {$ Z. \9 D! W
所以27000、即是
& o6 \/ k0 F9 @9 C$ a去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
4 ]- o! G, Q9 s1 y. P" h/ L同时还是去年放水初期低点、 / N) [: ]3 T! q6 @6 v
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 " B1 P2 O" Y% y! V
由此得出的结论是、 1 k( i/ N1 L- T/ a1 T P
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 & X( v. z0 r: n( @2 ^* k: k' S( Z8 J
点位不会出现太大偏离。 " g/ H/ N; S0 [) e4 \) ~+ H
综合以上、
% u( M* k& `# p; z) Q0 p6 c- K美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
( J" E; B3 x' [, ^在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
1 M; e% t/ w% n' b/ M: k; i那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
* J$ _% P5 K" N9 }/ I抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
8 l; x- F' \8 ~) c% x3 F" l那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
7 g4 b# Y/ ]. ~- r, s即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
; H& r3 |+ \8 l美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 7 C+ C8 u; O: T+ a. z6 w; q- u S
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 9 n" l# x% p8 @, e4 e6 F+ E
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 ! d$ M |/ \/ o: Y: |* J7 |
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
& @' p' p: e x* A: F7 ^高空需至31700-32000间布局、
7 J- q# ^4 `( ~" |& u/ I6 k% h( t反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 ]) {# c4 c. @
得不偿失。
# ~6 {1 s- U S/ x3 t- m" _来源：金色财经 |
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