Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯，数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 29816
[posts] => 484657
[todayposts] => 85
[yesterdayposts] => 158
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2809916 RYOEX:比特币流动性警示（转） 1772233411 22301
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
|
在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 9 [9 X& J4 I* \. T
余勋也不例外、 4 m5 _% m' C7 q8 c6 C+ M# f% s
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 ! a" N9 `$ r, n `$ @/ ~
是保经济的重要决策！
X7 t+ M4 ^2 x8 b9 z2 L( ~7 @3 A这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ( ~7 |: [1 e Y7 L1 K5 A6 D2 E
低点26700-32400、
' e5 |8 i# A W7 X7 `* ~3 K反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
1 W9 l+ s. ?" o$ p6 \' u但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
, \1 E5 ]7 r) M大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 6 N. w `0 g. I, w1 s
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 7 M1 t! Q+ N* Z5 f& h3 L
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 & `2 w6 }7 [4 r9 c, g) i6 _, _
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
8 H# e: X' Q' ?其次、
: H. I, c+ u0 W) V9 X缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 7 f7 e( H: [; }, _, V2 G
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 $ {& O& u" s8 h. L D
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 " x- t# |6 d+ a9 b* T8 j
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
: Z; Y5 q" \2 v4 \$ P但回到币圈、 / z+ e7 b1 a4 x- G" A0 @# g
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 , z5 }$ a, B, c- N$ I7 H( u# @
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
( b W2 `% A: Q* @而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
8 G$ S* j) p5 O0 _8 G个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
. E* j0 p! j2 l) f/ E缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 / @: x8 Q4 ]' v, _
对当前的底部、影响有限。 ( k& }2 }9 r% H; k4 C0 J
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
5 O) w" i/ s, i; n/ n" i所以27000、即是 ; W* \3 u0 v) I- T
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 4 R6 M! z9 b( D# H" L; X3 ~* n& [
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 - T' j' G% w0 H% s1 i
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 1 ^; P% P4 X g5 I0 C: F6 K
由此得出的结论是、 1 n3 m3 V4 X6 q+ s
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 1 Z' c3 L* }8 m/ T, C( G& ?
点位不会出现太大偏离。
7 A: k* w! j; |+ E6 \* F, Q综合以上、
' }4 W( H" L. r" Z% L* X美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 + @9 N: Y* [ I* G% x3 `) P
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
" |( l1 `# k) M; G那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
9 W/ Z) O% u/ m$ O" W: l' t1 y' E抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
+ J" x/ T; F9 X) Q2 y4 q那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
8 F6 X4 }& d3 Q# Q, J2 i% u* X即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 . Q% z# L8 j% e, e# \8 f3 z
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 . @- i% n4 N: M" Y
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 B! C7 d6 s3 j* K
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 9 O0 h L5 |% k& K1 k0 Y; |) e1 j
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
6 c; k% a% g6 f S2 A高空需至31700-32000间布局、
8 J! h# o0 d, Q8 j% o反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
+ m2 d& U/ X! K n3 Z+ @得不偿失。
' W" J' J5 o) N* [2 _来源：金色财经 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
