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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
9 `- ?4 l' ~1 |3 }余勋也不例外、 ! r/ k- J* `& R# A) X3 r
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
o" E& r( O6 E2 G' k3 B5 x是保经济的重要决策！
* y* H1 ]0 A$ ^ N6 @这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 2 ]6 ~( m; R4 e8 v# z( X. U
低点26700-32400、 6 l9 P8 ~( `* D% z0 {! a
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 ) u- g$ H6 _, r* G E [
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 0 _) |- l5 |, K& J: C1 \5 b" W
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 & P$ m e1 T" i" v+ u+ G" S( Y
涨幅就已回撤过半！
5 B9 ` f0 C7 N! Y所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 8 u/ f, u& @+ v' ?4 H
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 ( a3 L; l; n5 q1 F' F( u6 B
其次、
9 a6 Q2 t" C" B0 U缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 , r \, ~" g8 ]* ]
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
* z ?% c4 ]6 `等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 2 J( @, \( E" ^, K1 y* y
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 , c8 Z# O$ q$ t$ T
但回到币圈、
4 j/ c' Q2 o! F" i. m5 M# Z去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
3 r2 v' Z6 T( D* M在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 A$ W" @3 H1 I
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 3 l1 h4 p, O. h- |/ F; h5 |# N
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
7 |8 e% v4 g/ G w+ P* F4 s t; x缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
' t+ m( ?! \! U# f- }+ p! Q9 X' H对当前的底部、影响有限。
0 a8 h! ?6 l% R- p最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 - B: k7 ]* H' h. @; B* x
所以27000、即是
! |! M2 P6 ?$ X! K: E+ I! N去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） ! P! k0 C2 r/ W4 _# A* N4 ~
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
" _2 I1 r T s: X! J也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
! y1 k- p; A0 _4 Z: Y由此得出的结论是、
C @ v' K/ g# ]" g加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ) v, N5 \- D7 i5 G3 Q! e/ K
点位不会出现太大偏离。 ! k. g* R" t1 G7 U# e$ q
综合以上、 - ]7 r; o$ i# {9 I9 }9 r1 W3 [
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 + j; a# u3 R3 c1 ?) g+ O o9 c
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 , T' A7 Q" E0 k! J0 h0 Z$ L A, I) L
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
$ G+ R% k4 C4 Z' Z8 k0 M$ w抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 & x' Q5 m. H) ^
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
; f2 |# s- U9 P; Z即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
2 s7 y/ |1 K" x) \* B ?美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
$ b0 Q. u. c4 f2 o夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 # V" b2 k1 W$ x. g! M3 d
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 % N; o) u. O! H) Y9 [/ V/ m: g
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
( f: C4 u: ~; T3 l9 w高空需至31700-32000间布局、 : D9 p$ k2 i" q; D
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 7 g" _! j% R( D+ Q4 L! Q
得不偿失。
3 L! ~0 l, h. {' M2 Q0 l3 b# w' s来源：金色财经 |
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