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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率6 W% B3 L+ F# g3 w0 f
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?# Q* @+ W: b; e3 m
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)# b0 _) n! z9 u* {" r5 |4 \
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6 N& l% ]$ E! F* z) J: B以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?$ j4 ?& K4 i8 _1 B( [/ N5 W7 ?
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( s& m: i7 H1 E4 l盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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" ^3 E$ Z5 E8 r9 k% J许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?6 N8 A/ U8 b: U
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么' M# Z, g1 w1 f' s( v2 L
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润& J* c7 C" ~ a1 c0 \, Y8 X! N
60%的机会你会一无所有
, o5 S$ q8 G& ? Q2 k& j预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
; c( e0 O! Z7 y( c0 U2 q; R由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。; L+ Z4 o! h& U6 I. @7 |
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。+ p1 R% S" ?: F1 s3 u! F$ h; }/ x5 Z
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)" @9 S4 U* |# x+ K* Z' B8 X
$ |3 b6 F( E( G# l( F P6 r; zA=博彩资金
$ v2 {1 @7 ?6 y! O' Z/ RP=获胜机会$ q) K% }6 e) O
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)7 j* ], L6 q. E1 ]( s: K4 t, p
# Q! C! a$ q" p" d8 v首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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5 U. A F1 z- o/ XA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5) c. Z! J- Y6 V% a/ D6 J
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢2 g$ d, k2 y9 B, _
) U; V2 B6 u5 g+ Q1 C2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)2 H6 [- l+ @0 L' D$ b
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A=0.1, M9 {8 q& d0 T
$ Z. S8 y$ X4 h; S$ a结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去7 K8 `+ \$ z" d4 ~- S+ d
4 N8 H* X, H( A; A6 Y7 B% g# z3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)& y) S8 z' K% y' n5 G/ K; t5 u/ L
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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- {& Y3 j: }% T: u9 lA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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