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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。8 f' A% K2 T4 ]* t3 d6 w
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% , n( ~8 v% f% Q9 C% N

3 h5 ?# X( I: Z6 n- V很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?. Z& Q  Q# Z9 T5 S2 Z5 }9 y

; @2 ]; W( x& ~9 i答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!). J, V" g+ j$ R- s' Q
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/ u  ~. ?, w. I# h2 a1 ^以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性$ j- {* s( U0 t4 e& y
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。/ x$ x! C* e  U0 z  H/ ~% C

4 `5 m. V" y# o5 D# X2 i, h增值
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$ N6 o& o% L* Y+ m* [许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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. Q- ?3 S$ }7 Y4 N你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ a# i. P$ V. e+ b3 j8 w, z% _
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 6 Y) W& S0 x4 d& ]

; X  Q, n7 s+ y% e正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么" O# }$ `: u6 y5 k: g
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
& t$ m! A* A) B- g. C60%的机会你会一无所有3 p7 x; }1 W/ u+ z* Y( t1 Q
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 : V5 c8 C! A' T* q
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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5 K6 d' t8 d# ~+ ]增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。2 `& F& P/ }/ R
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基于增值的投注+ J" t, G0 `" K: P7 f; Y. V1 M- E: u
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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( h% w0 ~4 I3 z6 f: P$ \- H公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)% }/ [3 I9 O) {& u. x* T  s
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A=博彩资金
9 T; H/ i8 ?4 L1 P, q3 s0 a5 l2 mP=获胜机会' ]$ I) Q/ q$ |4 e
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)2 m! K7 U& C1 \: ?+ U: T

' i# o7 [- O. D首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。8 G) W1 P2 s- X9 ^1 N' [+ D

$ b* |. F5 ~3 y0 m好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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. A: |6 H2 ]' L. V# f2 o; _A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)" D" M; @2 d4 A& o( _9 o+ r9 u

4 c3 s9 ?3 V) d3 H! C7 n6 |  AA=09 ]2 g/ y3 L$ D9 K  o

; s6 Z& X" b3 r1 @0 y& Z2 N. D结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢( G8 U( R# Q' H6 K; ~" m% c% d& n

" W/ a. |% P" x0 `- ?' r2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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$ S! d. @) |1 oA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2), I. `7 i0 H+ @6 p

) F" v( ]5 y  y# HA=0.1
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  y! F, v# v" J6 {结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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/ L7 Y& s3 g; \5 ?第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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