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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。3 C: ?+ g, ~; f* \9 k0 t* q
( \! V! Q, M6 x' `" x# X6 I5 p/ `' b
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:- G$ E* e& U' ^) r
4 E! S3 V9 A# u# L* R6 T2 K
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 4 V+ p. a I- b/ E: D* f
2 k; M+ C: e, b) z很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?9 k- S4 l. t- l0 d1 c
6 _# y. @. m" K4 ]- [1 I
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!), Z) d- I! J* z+ [ [* d. [ w `
+ J( P( V( o% q/ ~: a+ V# Y1 z- F [6 h* x# d5 c
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性: {! w$ N9 M* V- v6 w# D
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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; b0 A9 X& a$ g: G$ c6 n5 W增值& f! K. c4 g! L5 \' i; v# p
c/ \: i% o* G+ \# X) W# Y# z7 K) j
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。4 B1 A: u4 Z" R( C
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 5 m7 ^' D. y# M9 M+ l
0 t' y9 g5 n q% S8 p7 U- T9 K8 |2 O正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么. t6 c. R" Z" M+ z
) p5 {" r. f% c$ V# o40%的机会你会收到150元的利润+ l" e# {- @3 P5 i
60%的机会你会一无所有5 P0 N4 l7 Q7 M: L# C# y" u- N
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# [ R$ q4 q4 Y1 x0 g1 t, P由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。 h/ \$ ^ S& E" X# c: \, o# R- v' G
# d+ y: L t: K1 x0 J( }2 f! v增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。( y8 a* h* F& l4 _* m
; [9 `1 E2 y, }/ Q5 r
基于增值的投注: |$ K, q- Y; A8 `2 l8 {& R* E
) U' Y1 r1 n6 h" z- X凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。* V4 d, D6 l+ K; X
8 C0 n& ?! z2 e# W6 Y k- p
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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0 Y3 i/ N* u6 i/ o: N+ d* SA=博彩资金, j( d" c; K1 `0 a8 ?
P=获胜机会' \+ E; }0 ]8 s& L/ S2 T
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)8 z: r: ^- A) b E. F; q
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。' e4 n; r s& e a" U
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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4 N4 {- P. Z: v# r+ K7 tA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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4 l9 p# B9 K P. v7 n4 RA=0) T2 n& L2 Q+ Q5 v4 {) ^0 U2 U
6 h' T" _3 \$ g3 [' B结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢, {. J# E9 \2 F! l! u: X5 P
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)% p* t" T6 O/ J. i# _* f
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
9 I4 z' h- _. C( S% a, M2 [; [3 h! k4 U% _" u
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)" ]$ Z" D) o+ j, V8 o8 ` n% w3 [
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)$ H* J& _) g/ n
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A= -0.2 & Z* h$ J4 F' B
8 [& m; i& M1 @2 u
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好& s F6 n% ^+ q( {
7 m; ^$ m _5 h/ A4 ?8 L7 R( p; g第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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