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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
! O9 v$ X: W7 `3 h6 P# N0 p# |% h * Y" z. y. s2 e J
平手中水,主队有利; s0 i7 Q' ]8 @+ l9 E/ s+ ]4 ^) v
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
7 r' I7 ~ V- r9 I- @9 K. Y$ y+ J 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:( C) f$ q: Q8 O" i1 b& c' p1 x# f x
英超主队
6 V/ }6 N: g. G7 Q/ x' i 胜:13场 48%2 |% N2 a- O( c" o1 v
平:5场 17%3 x, Q% O$ u0 b7 P9 G
负:9场 35% f- {) \( c) N. t# T8 N% T$ J- a
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
. p3 D: |0 {2 U2 I) P- }! L4 t ) n. W" i6 A$ D6 o$ P1 B) B
一、初盘阶段 P/ E! T& q- R6 V9 x' O
具体到水位如下:% Y9 M4 k9 t( ^0 d6 `0 G
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
( j2 M' ]% D. y( a' F7 M( ? 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
/ O. k* m1 l( d* L }* r 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负' b6 d v" }7 t
4 T* I: F8 P4 g" z% Y) Q6 k
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
- R: z7 L# l& r1 V. C. { 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。! H' y8 l. M& j
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。1 Y: L9 b- X) ]: b" @, H& c
" g; y. [+ S( D! L3 j7 w
二、临场阶段( n; @2 I1 p+ X7 n4 z$ ~
& @( F6 h X; Z, V$ X: |/ p 具体到变盘和水位如下:
+ E( l$ Q' _& g 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
: C5 |4 b9 w7 o+ D: d0 ? 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负& p Y: L& V' t w
7 O9 L4 J9 B) p( ^1 Q: a! r( Y6 } 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。9 k; v# _ \# N' g/ x, D" s
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析: P; S+ D8 a; S, r
+ S6 o1 F/ }4 c! e5 b
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿9 X [( Z( r5 N3 r$ r. q6 z' k
初盘:0.82平手1.04) j2 s$ p6 M0 ^' ^7 F% x
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.858 |8 P+ }. _; b9 g4 j# Q
5 y9 n6 {" A1 D- j5 b' Z1 R 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
: W$ Y( S- Z5 Z/ e6 ^* f, [8 |# ` 初盘:0.76平手1.108 \& I: x5 L0 Y" F9 F
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
5 g1 ~4 s. X: G2 u
& Q; a b# }5 f) e5 }2 r2 o' } 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技% p, |& m" d# s0 g1 T: M& {: \9 e
初盘:0.82平手1.04
7 L, K7 a: T; w0 P S 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.986 o4 k C! I3 ?* ?& P! D) w
$ j3 S) c! b5 K1 Z" q1 P
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
6 w9 T+ Z& I: w$ h8 @$ s 初盘:0.88平手0.98
4 t. W# F1 i( w 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
/ o! r" t; E: _9 Q0 W 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
; M. j& J. S" E+ y, e" l' F* T 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
& F, K5 r* i9 @ 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
, b( E5 E0 N* P; t4 V! { ( o r; l7 g! F8 `
三、球队表现
5 u2 @% N" a9 k9 Y
; [. I# o* D' C8 d 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
3 f( [6 ~" }7 ~8 d( I 8 B! H d* n$ G6 m3 ^; H
四、投注要点
9 t4 @7 D2 [1 s U' u 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
! P$ M" A- }( ^+ i! E6 n 要点2:平手降盘、走两头) V4 i1 d5 I+ o b5 K) X% `- ^
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
: X6 L8 \, J# m" e 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大( I: `+ m& }. s4 x" D1 @: V
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
[/ t5 R# D7 @3 F 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
& H2 B. `; f1 b7 Y/ f 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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