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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 4 M( A1 \$ ?6 ?$ r
余勋也不例外、
7 `$ t/ P+ k" C( d. {. |其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
* Y5 q- a* h. X6 F( Z, E是保经济的重要决策！
1 R* q' p& b+ z$ l这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
* K% y/ X7 x( `* a0 s低点26700-32400、 , N" y0 j! k4 q
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
9 U( W! k0 s" T& t但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 # I( W( v2 |4 j' \% m4 q% }
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 + n4 ^% {8 [; {9 o* i
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 9 e/ ~7 I0 D) g9 y& I
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
$ T$ K$ V* r- C" l, I) X% V不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
+ y3 }8 ^, }% F$ A$ I0 t+ R# M其次、
& {; {0 N0 N. W3 L+ I0 [8 [缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 ! c! |3 ^. ]) X) W
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
/ `$ ], s6 G: \8 I' n% D等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 5 K( K! x) F F1 O2 J; R
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 , ~$ {1 M- c3 N
但回到币圈、
, X2 a, {/ W$ h, w6 Q; i$ b, f去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 0 t8 w, w5 B) g( {, s) l
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
/ O0 p# j2 R$ |5 E: x而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
e0 R6 d3 |* _3 m$ m, i+ D- W个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 8 k) P/ W6 H' [' T
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 : I% i7 B" l4 H/ x0 F: E( P
对当前的底部、影响有限。
5 `: Z4 U! l1 l. O, S最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
G4 y% r) M p' A9 `* T/ L所以27000、即是 , ` p& V: ?- R
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） : Z) g6 K2 l) H; K
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
5 G5 R0 T3 M. f; y也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
; r) R( O0 x/ X% H1 F由此得出的结论是、 " Y& d9 @' s% N
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
( v: {! ]2 X- A点位不会出现太大偏离。 ( e% s1 W5 Q1 I9 I& T" j2 A
综合以上、
: y8 O& |! x; {1 y1 D美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
0 V% I6 A: |' m$ {+ n/ i在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 1 V$ g: U6 k2 m* f$ m$ U
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
4 H2 ?( f, R5 ~' ?" U; I抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
4 W. X6 [) L$ q/ \+ f* m9 h, X那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
1 y: P- [. ~$ T即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
1 i( {' {8 ]8 ^ C( G2 g美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
4 E; }7 V% \1 T' t夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
8 k; A3 M+ F7 t: Y大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 5 T+ k/ l3 ~5 ?! L
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 2 x* n3 E5 Z$ Y" {8 M
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 % {5 Y( |0 t* H6 ?) Y
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
+ U. Y& K O+ d- G0 m得不偿失。
- e' ]4 w/ p( k6 P. D来源：金色财经 |
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